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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (9917)	7/27/2004 10:38:41 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I was referring to this article that you originally linked: #reply-20343344 "Evidence mounts that the Orange County housing market is cooling from its red- hot sales pace of the past year. Experts say that rising home prices have given some shoppers a reason to not buy in recent weeks. According to Real Data Strategies in Brea, local home sales in the four weeks ended June 21 were down 15 percent from a year ago. Real Data's figures do not include sales of new homes or activity in some parts of the county. The sales decline has accelerated, dropping to 34 percent for the past four weeks versus a year ago, Real Data says."

To: ild who wrote (9917)	7/28/2004 9:00:00 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

This should make it clear we are not fighting enough wars. U.S. June durable goods orders up 0.7% Wednesday, July 28, 2004 12:50:36 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) - Orders for new military aircraft pushed orders for durable goods 0.7 percent higher in June, the Commerce Department said Wednesday Orders had fallen a revised 0.9 percent in May and 2.7 percent in April. May's decrease was originally reported as down 1.8 percent Economists were expecting new orders to rise about 1.7 percent in June Excluding defense goods, orders fell 0.4 percent, the third straight decline The weak durable goods report continues a string of soft economic numbers that has cheered bond market bulls with hopes that the economy will slow and the Federal Reserve will adopt a much slower pace of interest rate hikes Shipments of durable goods also increased 0.7 percent in June, with an 0.8 percent gain excluding defense Unfilled orders increased 0.6 percent in June, while inventories increased 0.7 percent Orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft increased 1.2 percent in June after falling 1.9 percent in May. Shipments of core capital goods increased 2 percent Orders for transportation goods rose 4.2 percent, with most of the gains coming from defense aircraft, which surged 79 percent. Orders for motor vehicles increased 1.3 percent. Orders for civilian aircraft fell 8 percent Excluding transportation goods, orders dropped 0.6 percent, the third decline in a row Orders for computers and electronics decreased 1 percent on falling communications equipment orders Orders for machinery increased 0.3 percent. Orders for electrical goods fell 4.4 percent Orders for primary metals fell 0.4 percent while orders for fabricated metals increased 3.3 percent

To: ild who wrote (9917)	7/28/2004 9:09:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

White House set to project record deficit $420 billion estimate sure to become an election issueThe Associated Press msnbc.msn.com

To: ild who wrote (9917)	7/28/2004 9:17:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

BoE´s Bean says risks from high debts less significant than suggested [Not to worry he says because it went into houses not consumption - is this a joke - mish] Wednesday, July 28, 2004 12:39:02 PM BoE's Bean says risks from high debts less significant than suggested LONDON (AFX) - High levels of household indebtedness pose less of a threat to the outlook for the UK economy than has previously been suggested, the Bank of England's chief economist said today Charlie Bean, who is also a member of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, said the household debt build-up, which stands at nearly 1 trln stg, has been primarily associated with asset accumulation involving the purchase of houses, rather than consumption "The risks to the outlook posed by heavily indebted households are consequently less significant than has been suggested," Bean told the Institute for Economic Affairs There have been mounting concerns that the debt build-up will eventually force households to retrench and cut back on spending, with major negative repercussions on consumption and the outlook for the economy However, Bean countered the media commentary and noted that the "household savings rate has not been unusually low". Overall, Bean said the immediate prospects for the UK economy appear "brighter" than they have for a while The UK economy is expected to grow by over 3.0 pct in 2004, its highest rate of growth for four years Given limited spare capacity in the economy and rampant consumer spending, the MPC has grown concerned about mounting inflationary pressures and has raised the cost of borrowing by a quarter point on four occasions since last November, taking the key repo rate up to 4.50 pct It is again expected to raise the cost of borrowing another quarter point at next week's meeting, which comes ahead of the central bank's quarterly Inflation Report Bean announced today that the central bank will base its inflation forecasts on the market's projection for future interest rates, rather than the current interest rate At present, the BoE's inflation forecasts look at how prices will move if the cost of borrowing stays constant "Forecast for inflation and growth assuming that rates follow a path implied by the financial markets provide a more plausible picture of prospects than assuming interest rates remain constant," he said "In future Inflation Reports, the MPC will be placing the primary emphasis on the projection based on market rates," he added Bean also said the "neutral rate of interest", while being a useful organising principle, "cannot be pinned down with any confidence and so is not very helpful in deciding the precise level of interest rates" The neutral rate, widely considered to be around 5.25 pct for the UK economy, is the rate at which growth does not stimulate, or depress, prices

To: ild who wrote (9917)	7/28/2004 9:21:16 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Mogambo mentions Russ 321gold.com The part that one would NOT expect is that gold is not, also, powering upward. This apparently anomaly is perhaps explained by the central banks manipulating the market to suit themselves and cover their nasty butts, as they have, over the years, leased all that gold to make a few bucks for themselves. And the guys who leased it sold it, figuring that they could replace the borrowed gold later. So there is a gigantic short position in gold. And you know what happens when there is a big short position in something: the shorts get squeezed if the price goes higher. So to keep the guys who borrowed all this gold from folding their tents and skipping the country, sticking the central banks with the bill, the central banks have a vested interest in manipulating the market to keep the price low. Given the general trustworthiness of government, it sounds right to me! But there are those who think that this paradox cannot last. The Mogambo is one, and Nigel Maund, who writes on the CliveMaund.com website, is another. He writes, "Faced with overvalued stocks, bonds and real estate, and a collapsing US dollar, rising oil prices (towards US$ 50 - 55 by end 2004), accelerating inflation, and, finally (as the Fed's hand is forced), accelerating interest rates, the World's No 1 economy, the USA, looks to be headed for the 'Economic Train Wreck of All Time'. This will bring the Global Economy, including China, to its knees. Under this scenario, investment demand for all the precious metals could quite simply take off to levels hitherto thought improbable."