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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (17044)	7/28/2004 4:42:10 PM
From: stevenallen	Respond to of 110194

Sure hope that's right Ild, as I'm now positioned 2:1 short exposure overall, with PMs long (silver. copper as well as gold) and some energy, mostly NG.

To: ild who wrote (17044)	7/29/2004 10:36:43 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Jul 29 2004 10:06 trotsky (@GFI earnings) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved so, GFI's earnings are bad - but about more than twice as good as the worst estimates had pegged them. what's more, the market's reaction to this earnings report is a strong sign that it is being 'seen through' as a likely trough in the SA miners earnings cycle. note that the report contains quite a few interesting details. for instance, while SA based production costs are still up sharply year-on-year, they have begun to decline quarter-on-quarter, in spite of the fact that the Rand continued to strengthen in the period. apparently the countermeasures are beginning to take effect. also, GFI's foreign investment activities are not to be underestimated in their potential future effect on production and earnings ( and GFI's cost profile ) . most notable in this context are the planned expansions in Ghana ( GFI's most sucessful project over the past decade ) , Arctic Platinum ( which could become one of the few major PGM producers outside SA and Russia ) and the foot in Russia's door. there are still worries about Norilsk's financing of the GFI stake ( due to the Yukos affair, Norilsk recently failed to get a 500m. euro-bond out the door ) , but assuming those concerns are going to be addressed, GFI now has huge leg up compared to the competition in Russia. if Norilks does a gold assets for shares swap with GFI, GFI would overnight become the biggest gold miner in the world.