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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (11040)	7/29/2004 7:58:01 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

UPDATE - TSMC scoffs at chip-sector doubters after record Q2 Thursday July 29, 5:46 am ET By Roger Tung (Adds analyst comments, details, background) TAIPEI, July 29 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (Taiwan:2330.TW - News), the world's top contract chip maker, doubled quarterly profits to a record high and raised its 2004 capital spending budget in a sign of confidence in its outlook. The results on Thursday came a day after its main competitor, United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) (Taiwan:2303.TW - News), posted a near five-fold jump in profits and gave a surprisingly upbeat forecast for the current quarter. TSMC (NYSE:TSM - News) waved off investor worries that 2004 will mark a peak for the highly cyclical chip industry, despite signs of rising inventories at companies higher up the electronics manufacturing and retailing chain. "The semiconductor cycle will begin to decline in 2006," Morris Chang, TSMC's chairman, told an investors' conference. "There is a small amount of undesirable inventory in the supply chain," said Chang. "Before the end of the year it will be normalised." Chang backed up his confidence in demand for his factories by raising TSMC's 2004 capital spending budget to $2.4 billion from $2.0 billion and predicting 2005 spending would be even larger. The company will spend the money on expanding its output of 12-inch semiconductor wafers, its most profitable line. He also forecast shipments would rise 4-5 percent in the current quarter over the April-June period. "The results for TSMC and UMC are not bad. The recent downgrades for the chip industry have been overly concerned with inventory levels," said George Wu, who includes TSMC and UMC shares in the $100 million fund he manages for INVESCO Taiwan. GADGET BOOM Both companies have been raking in money by making chips for companies including Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN - News; TI) and Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT - News), which are benefiting from strong demand for cameraphones and other gadgets. But analysts and investors have been fretting that moves in the United States and China -- Taiwan's two largest export markets -- to slow economic growth will begin to hit semiconductor manufacturers in the second half of the year. About 75 percent of TSMC chips end up in the United States. Shares in TSMC and UMC have tumbled some 23 percent and 27 percent since mid-April. TSMC said net profits in the second quarter doubled from a year earlier to T$23.41 billion (US$685 million), in line with analysts' expectations. The profits were up 24.6 percent from the first quarter. The company said its factories would still be running at more than 100 percent of stated capacity in the second half of the year, but below the 106 percent of the second quarter. Both TI and Motorola posted strong second-quarter results, but offered different views of the current quarter. TI said growth would moderate in the second half as customers had stocked inventories. Motorola forecast stronger-than-expected sales this quarter. "We think the end market is healthy," said TSMC's Chang. TSMC's outlook was more conservative than UMC's, which saw third-quarter shipments rising 15-16 percent from the April-June period and selling prices 3-4 percent higher. TSMC, which is about one-fifth owned by Philips Electronics N.V. (Amsterdam:PHG.AS - News), said prices would remain level. Shares in TSMC, which posted its results before the close of trade, fell 1.68 percent to T$41 on Thursday, against a 0.63 percent loss in the broader index. UMC shares fell 0.47 percent, despite its optimism the day earlier. The sector's third-largest company, Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (SES:CSMF.SI - News; NasdaqNM:CHRT - News), posted its second straight quarterly profit last week, but said September quarter sales would be flat on weak demand for mobile phones and DVD players. (US$1 = T$34.2)

To: Gottfried who wrote (11040)	7/29/2004 8:54:03 AM
From: Fred Levine	Respond to of 25522

Gottfried:re >>The analyst who publishes his recs gets no direct benefit from me, the reader of his work. So why does he publish it? We can all speculate on that.<< I also know analysts. They are judged by the accuracy of their analyses. Remember when Garzarelli ruled, when Abbey Cohen was queen, and even back more, when Joe Granville--whom I regarded as somewhat manic-- was able to move the markets? I don't question their motives, but I frequently question their judgments. They commanded huge salaries and went down the tubes when their batting averages slumped. I simply think that being right is essential to them, but being human is one of their faults. The batting averages of 80%of analysts are below random. That is because, IMO, they are too close to the pictures and suffer information overload. I am impressed by the simplicity of Lynch. He looks at the product/service and the management. I look at the growing demand for chips. I meant to post a NY Times article about how chips are now being used to tell vintners when to harvest grapes. Damn! What will they think of next? fred

To: Gottfried who wrote (11040)	7/29/2004 9:24:57 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

HI G, All the brokers will ignore the fact that there is a cause effect relationship. High Asset clients get charged 2% of assets and 10-20 % of gains.The little guy gets fleeced by newbie brokers who read the pablem put out by analysts. If no one pays for analysts work - why does Wall Street pay so much for its maintenance. The shepherds lead the flock into the high asset account clippers. There is a huge conflict here and no one wants to acknowledge it - BUyer Beware is all I'm saying. The game is rigged to benefit those who pay the highest commission - should be pretty clear who gets the straight scoop. The rest are unknowingly pawns in the game. JMHO Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (11040)	8/3/2004 8:14:39 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Now Hynix in trouble in Japan.... Japan prepares DRAM dumping probe, says report Silicon Strategies 08/03/2004, 6:00 AM ET TOKYO -- Japanese government authorities are to begin an investigation that could lead to duties on imports of DRAM chips made by South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor Inc., according to a Reuters report, which cited Japan's finance and trade ministries as sources. Japan's Elpida Memory Inc., a DRAM joint venture between Hitachi Ltd and NEC Corp, and the Japanese unit of Micron Technology Inc. had asked the Japanese government in June to impose duties on Hynix's DRAM chips, arguing that the conversion of large debts into equity by government-backed banks amounted to state subsidy for Hynix.. Hynix is already subject to anti-dumping duties of 34.8 percent imposed by the European Union and duties of 45 percent imposed on imports into the United States. Despite this, since the conversion of a large part of its debt into equity, the DRAM market has improved and Hynix rose to be the number two DRAM provider in the second quarter of 2004. "We believe that there is enough evidence for starting our investigation," the report quoted Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki saying to a regular news conference on Tuesday (August 3).