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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 8:50:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. initial jobless claims up 4,000 to 345,000 By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 345,000 in the week ending July 24, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims - which smoothes out distortions in the weekly figures caused by weather and other one-time factors -- fell by 1,000 to 336,250. It's the lowest in three weeks. The tiny increase in weekly claims was in line with expectations on Wall Street, where economists were looking for about 344,000 new filings. The number of Americans continuing to receive state unemployment benefits rose by 174,000 to 2.96 million in the week ending July 17, the highest in eight weeks. The insured unemployment rate rose to 2.3 percent from a cycle low of 2.2 percent.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 9:07:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Wage deflation money.cnn.com Americans' overall income shrank for two consecutive years after stocks plunged in 2000, the first time that has effectively happened in the since the current tax system was put in place during World War II, according to a published report Thursday. The New York Times, reporting data from the Internal Revenue Service, said gross income reported to the agency fell 5.1 percent to $6.0 trillion in 2002, the most recent year for which data is available, down from $6.35 trillion in 2000. Because of population growth, average income fell even more, by 5.7 percent, and adjusted for inflation the decline was 9.2 percent.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 9:10:10 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Tokyo shares open lower on news of bigger-than-forecast industrial output drop Thursday, July 29, 2004 12:48:32 AM TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Share prices opened slightly lower following news that industrial output in June fell by a greater-than-expected 1.3 pct from the previous month After the first 12 minutes of trading, the blue-chip Nikkei 225 index was down 28.69 points or 0.3 pct at 11,175.68 The TOPIX index of all First Section shares was down 2.79 points or 0.25 pct at 1,126.85. News of the drop in industrial output was released 10 minutes before trading began, and mitigated the boost to market sentiment provided by a raft of better-than-expected Q1 earnings results released over recent days by major companies like Honda, Nintendo and Advantest. Industrial output in June was expected to fall, but by only 0.3 pct according to the average forecast of 22 research houses polled by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. The forecasts ranged from a decline of 1.9 pct to an increase of 0.8 pct METI itself forecast last month that output would fall 0.1 pct in June Year-on-year, output rose 8.9 pct, the 10th straight month of increase due to strong exports, brisk corporate capital spending - and more recently evidence of an upturn in domestic consumer spending Economists and investors are watching the monthly industrial output data for evidence of whether Japanese manufacturers continue to expand output in the face of concern over a possible slowdown in growth in China and the US, the two largest export markets for Japanese goods A recent spate of weaker-than-expected domestic indicators, particularly ones pertaining to consumer spending and activity in the service sector, which employs more than half the Japanese workforce, has also sparked concern over whether consumer spending is truly rebounding when wages remain stagnant. The ministry projected output will rise, month-on-month, by 1.6 pct in July and by 1.0 pct in August. Last month, METI forecast output in July would rise 0.6 pct The Japanese share market received mixed signals from the performance of Wall Street overnight. The Dow rose 0.3 pct, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell 0.6 pct

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 9:56:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Personal Debt in UK exceeds 1.8 Trillion for the first time ever. Debt has reached the size of its economy. Debt as a % of income exceeds the US and is approaching levels seen right before last recession in 1990. I believe this explains the weakness of the pound. Mish

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 11:15:58 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on GFI Date: Thu Jul 29 2004 10:06 trotsky (@GFI earnings) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved so, GFI's earnings are bad - but about more than twice as good as the worst estimates had pegged them. what's more, the market's reaction to this earnings report is a strong sign that it is being 'seen through' as a likely trough in the SA miners earnings cycle. note that the report contains quite a few interesting details. for instance, while SA based production costs are still up sharply year-on-year, they have begun to decline quarter-on-quarter, in spite of the fact that the Rand continued to strengthen in the period. apparently the countermeasures are beginning to take effect. also, GFI's foreign investment activities are not to be underestimated in their potential future effect on production and earnings ( and GFI's cost profile ) . most notable in this context are the planned expansions in Ghana ( GFI's most sucessful project over the past decade ) , Arctic Platinum ( which could become one of the few major PGM producers outside SA and Russia ) and the foot in Russia's door. there are still worries about Norilsk's financing of the GFI stake ( due to the Yukos affair, Norilsk recently failed to get a 500m. euro-bond out the door ) , but assuming those concerns are going to be addressed, GFI now has huge leg up compared to the competition in Russia. if Norilks does a gold assets for shares swap with GFI, GFI would overnight become the biggest gold miner in the world.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 12:17:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. weekly jobless claims stabilize - Thursday, July 29, 2004 3:11:26 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 345,000 in the week ended July 24, the Labor Department said Thursday The four-week average of new claims, which smoothes out distortions in the weekly figures caused by weather and other one-time factors, fell by 1,000 to a level of 336,250. It's the lowest in three weeks. The increase in weekly claims was in line with expectations on Wall Street. Economists had been looking for about 344,000 new filings. Meanwhile, the number of Americans continuing to receive state unemployment benefits rose by 174,000, hitting 2.96 million in the week ended July 17, the highest reading in eight weeks The insured unemployment rate, measuring the percentage of claims among those eligible for benefits, rose back to 2.3 percent from a cycle low of 2.2 percent a week earlier Most of the recent data support the conclusion that "new job creation will remain steady in coming months, although not quite as strong as in the spring," said Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist with Economy.com In a separate report, the Labor Department said employment costs increased 0.9 percent in the second quarter, down from a 1.1 percent gain seen in the first quarter. Wage and salary costs increased 0.6 percent, while benefit costs climbed 1.8 percent. In another report, the Conference Board said its index of newspaper help-wanted advertising slipped to 38 in June from 39 in May. The index was at 38 a year ago. Ad lineage fell in five of nine regions during the second quarter, the board said "Help-wanted advertising was on a slow upward trend through February but has now been virtually flat over a four-month period," said Ken Goldstein, chief economist at the board. "Consumers seem to believe the economy and the labor market will continue to improve," Goldstein said, citing the board's surveys of consumer confidence. "Labor demand will hold up if the economy does." What's it mean for payrolls? The weekly data on layoffs come a week and a day before the Labor Department issues its monthly employment report covering July. Economists are currently expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 225,000 in July after 112,000 new jobs were created in June During the July survey week (the week containing the 12th of the month), initial claims were up by 5,000 compared with the June survey week, reaching 341,000. Continuing claims were up by 8,000 compared with June at 2.96 million After having plunged by about 60,000 in the last six months of 2003, the level of initial claims is largely unchanged over the past three months Initial and continuing claims are now at levels consistent with job growth of about 150,000 to 250,000 a month, economists say. Continuing claims have fallen by about 400,000 since the beginning of the year. This steady decline in the continuing claims figures could be a sign of increased hiring, or it could mean that some workers are exhausting their benefits before finding work. It's likely a combination of the two factors Long-term unemployment has been particularly insidious during this business cycle. In June, 1.8 million, or 21.6 percent, of the 8.2 million workers classified as unemployed had been out of work longer than six months. The average duration of unemployment remained high at 19.9 weeks fxstreet.com

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (9966)	7/29/2004 12:33:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. June help wanted index falls to 38 Thursday, July 29, 2004 2:18:56 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Help-wanted advertising declined slightly in June, the Conference Board reported Thursday. The board's help wanted index fell to 38 in June from 39 in May. It was at 38 a year ago. The board said help-wanted advertising declined in five of nine regions in the second quarter. "Help-wanted advertising was on a slow upward trend through February but has now been virtually flat over a four-month period," said Ken Goldstein, chief economist at the board. "Consumers seem to believe the economy and the labor market will continue to improve," he said, citing the board's surveys of consumer confidence. "Labor demand will hold up if the economy does."