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To: stock bull who wrote (65879)7/29/2004 1:43:34 PM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
I don't believe she was alluding to that.

The market does tend to decline going into a Democratic presidency. Usually Wall Street's worries are overblown.

I'd tend to believe Amy's version of the current market. While I don't think that market is discounting a Kerry victory 100%, I do think that a piece of the drop this summer is do to an increasing probability that Kerry will be our next president.

That is unrelated to what the market's performance might be after the election.



To: stock bull who wrote (65879)8/5/2004 9:06:41 PM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
Hi Stock Bull, like you, I don't understand why WS reacted the way it did a week ago to the idea of having a Dem in the WH, when history has shown many Dems have done pretty good things for the stock market. GV's post about my opinion on this was accurate. Maybe the markets were factoring in some of Edwards earlier comments about offshoring, which he has toned down. I think Edwards probably realizes he can't kill American corporations when he takes a hard look at the competition outside and sees what they're doing. The key is to avoid any rash moves that ultimately hurts everyone in this country. Companies like Samsung produce semiconductor chips with only 1/4 the number of employees at 1/2 the revenue of Intel, maybe due to offshoring or something else. Could you imagine their salaries going down by 1/2 to match Samsung's if Edwards said no one can develop overseas? People would probably prefer offshoring to help support their American wages. (Intel has divisions overseas actually to get into large markets.)

Was a bit soft in my post on Bush, after reading an article indicating he may be suffering from depression, which made me soften my tone. Such an illness would explain the puzzle over why Bush was so slow responding to 9/11 when he was reading to students in a class. Someone had to tell him twice America was attacked before he responded.

The lack of good judgement by the current administration is concerning for businesses - starting a war is so costly:

"When the New York Times apologized to readers May 26 for not being "more aggressive" in examining the administration's decision to invade Iraq, editors couldn't help but give a nod to a less-vaunted news organization that had been beating the Times on the story for some time: Knight Ridder's Washington bureau."
ajr.org

I like Mercury News (Knight Ridder) a lot - they tend to be reasonably independent and seem to unearth the real news scoops. They also have great statistical information for businesses. It's hard to believe Bush & Congress couldn't have applied $300B in another way to deal with all of this more effectively. bin Laden's issue is about our presence in the middle east - reducing our dependence of oil would have been my approach - creating a tax on heavy vehicles (SUV, etc.) to conserve oil usage.

Iraq was controlled by a tyrant, but will anything else but tyrants work there? (I don't know.) That area of the world is filled with so much violence. How does democracy work in such a violent environment? I sure hope it eventually does. But my fear is Bush has unleashed more harm potential on us. Like some others, am also tired of the stock market being in the doldrums. Do no harm, just isn't well understood by govt.

Regards,
Amy J