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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (57021)	7/30/2004 4:01:29 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793838

Neither did Daniel Drezner Kerry's speech Here's what struck me about Kerry's speech: 1) Given the emphasis on a positive message emanating from this convention, Kerry took harder shots than I expected at Bush -- but I thought his foreign policy critique hit home. I was obviously sympathetic to the line, "You will never be asked to fight a war without a plan to win the peace." This is the section that the Bush team will have to rebut: Saying there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq doesn't make it so. Saying we can fight a war on the cheap doesn't make it so. And proclaiming mission accomplished certainly doesn't make it so. As President, I will ask hard questions and demand hard evidence. I will immediately reform the intelligence system - so policy is guided by facts, and facts are never distorted by politics. And as President, I will bring back this nation's time-honored tradition: the United States of America never goes to war because we want to, we only go to war because we have to. 2) At one point, Kerry said, "I know there are those who criticize me for seeing complexities - and I do - because some issues just aren't all that simple." Funny, then, that his comments on outsourcing seemed completely simplistic and devoid of facts. And yes, I saw Bob Rubin strategically placed next to Theresa, but I really would have liked a camera to have caught his reaction to those sections of the speech. 3) I was underwhelmed with his delivery. He seemed uncomfortable with the teleprompter -- it reminded me of Bush's speech immediately after Gore conceded. 4) The part of the speech when Kerry seemed the most engaged was when he talked about the sixties generation changing the world. That's great, but I'm not sure how it applies now. 5) The articulation of Kerry's "liberal hawk position seemed to me as the most fleshed-out part of the speech: As President, I will fight a smarter, more effective war on terror. We will deploy every tool in our arsenal: our economic as well as our military might; our principles as well as our firepower. In these dangerous days there is a right way and a wrong way to be strong. Strength is more than tough words. After decades of experience in national security, I know the reach of our power and I know the power of our ideals. We need to make America once again a beacon in the world. We need to be looked up to and not just feared. We need to lead a global effort against nuclear proliferation - to keep the most dangerous weapons in the world out of the most dangerous hands in the world. We need a strong military and we need to lead strong alliances. And then, with confidence and determination, we will be able to tell the terrorists: You will lose and we will win. The future doesn't belong to fear; it belongs to freedom. And the front lines of this battle are not just far away - they're right here on our shores, at our airports, and potentially in any town or city. Today, our national security begins with homeland security. The 9-11 Commission has given us a path to follow, endorsed by Democrats, Republicans, and the 9-11 families. As President, I will not evade or equivocate; I will immediately implement the recommendations of that commission. We shouldn't be letting ninety-five percent of container ships come into our ports without ever being physically inspected. We shouldn't be leaving our nuclear and chemical plants without enough protection. And we shouldn't be opening firehouses in Baghdad and closing them down in the United States of America. The line, "I want an America that relies on its own ingenuity and innovation - not the Saudi royal family." was also pretty shrewd. This section papers over some tricky foreign policy tradeoffs, like exactly how he would get our allies to contribute to Iraq, but I will say this -- the speech convinced me that Kerry gets the fact that this election is about foreign policy and the war on terror. So where do I stand on the fence? I promised Tyler Cowen I'd start assigning a probability of which side of the fence I'd land. At this point, if p = (probability of voting for Kerry), then my p = .54. posted by Dan on 07.29.04 at 11:31 PM Polipundit didn't like it either. How Did Kerry Do Tonight? My Take on the Kerry Acceptance Speech… 1. Kerry’s delivery was AWFUL. He was sweating. He was bouncing all over the place and waving his hands like a maniac. Above all, he didn’t smile. Very unlikable presentation. 2. The content amazed me. I was expecting him to appeal to the 10% of undecided voters. Instead he went far left, moving out to the Howard Dean/Michael Moore wing of his party. So what should we expect now? 1. Kerry should get a small bounce in the polls. Hopefully, my hunch will be correct, and it will not be a large one. 2. The Bush campaign is going to lay out its agenda for a second term. At the same time, it will take Kerry apart. 3. Karl Rove has no doubt noted Kerry’s omission of an appeal to the center. Expect him to stress the “compassionate conservative” theme. I know many of you want red meat, but we need to use our heads on this one. 4. The next week will be very important on the economic front. Later this morning, the GDP number will be released. Next week will be the August payroll numbers. Analysts are expecting an increase above 200,000. I hope and pray this will be the case. It would be even sweeter if last month’s number is revised upwards.