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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (57141)	7/30/2004 4:50:04 PM
From: gamesmistress	Respond to of 793725

It's good, old fashioned American populism, going back to William Jennings Bryan. It works real well with the base. Yeah, but only if you figure that the "base" are the upper-class liberals offering "hope" to the people they imagine are in desperate need of their help. This movement is generated from above, not below.

To: LindyBill who wrote (57141)	7/30/2004 4:51:34 PM
From: gamesmistress	Respond to of 793725

The simple truth is that others do a better job of selling John Kerry than John Kerry does of selling himself. Friday, July 30 2004 THE KERRY MOMENT: John Kerry didn't hurt his chances of becoming president last night. Problem is, I don't think he helped them very much either. What I saw was a man rushing through a rather long speech, as if he knew he had to get it all crammed into prime time lest he be cut off before the big finish. Time and again Kerry plowed right over the audience applauding his best lines. There was hardly any ebb or flow to the speech; no place to catch one's breath, no moment where Kerry took his foot off the gas to try and slow down and get intimate with America. From about two minutes in, Kerry was full throated and full throttle, and the effort and pace at which he spoke showed in the way he began to perspire and his voice seemed to grow more and more strained toward the end. As far as content goes, there's really only one question worth asking: did John Kerry convince enough moderates and independents that he is a credible alternative to the current Commander in Chief? For the moment I think the answer is "yes." But I also don't think it's an impression that will last. John Kerry may have surrounded himself with veterans last night and said the right words about strengthening the military and fighting terror, but over the next three months the public is going to learn a great deal about Kerry's record that is at odds with the impression he tried to create last night. The biggest mistake of the entire convention was not running the Kerry biographical video in prime time. It was brilliant. The footage of Kerry fighting in Vietnam was mixed superbly with clips that made him seem funny, warm, and strong. It was a powerful piece of propaganda - much more so than Kerry's actual speech - and most Americans never got a chance to see it. Ditto Kerry's daughters, who I thought both did a wonderful job of opening an attractive, empathetic window through which people could view their father. Even Max Cleland gave a strong introduction that would have made a positive impression on voters. In other words, one of the biggest problems last night is that America saw too much of John Kerry in person. Instead of speaking for 46 minutes, Kerry would have been much better off to speak for half that and to have used the video, his daughters, and Max Cleland and his shipmates as surrogates and character witnesses. The irony is that the Kerry campaign already knows all of this. It's the strategy they've been using for the last nine months, ever since Mary Beth Cahill showed up to administer CPR to Kerry's presidential bid late last year. The simple truth is that others do a better job of selling John Kerry than John Kerry does of selling himself. Last night the Kerry campaign decided to change the formula. The result is that Kerry's hour in prime time was not nearly as effective as it could have been. Of the five major speeches at the convention this year I'd have to say Kerry's speech ranks fourth behind Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. The only person Kerry performed better than was his wife. But again, I don't think Kerry hurt his chances last night so much as he missed an opportunity to really put the pressure on President Bush. We'll have to wait and see what the polls say. Zogby is out this morning with a poll taken July 26-29 showing a 5-point lead for Kerry. Five points in the head-to-head race seems to me to be the break even point for the Kerry campaign, so keep your eye on the RCP Average. If Kerry and Edwards aren't averaging at least a 5-point lead in this next round of post-convention polls, I suspect you'll see the optimism and confidence of the Democrats start to give way to doubt. - realclearpolitics.com