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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jimbobwae who wrote (17102)	7/31/2004 9:55:34 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<monitoring crop reports/conditions in China? > Excellent question, no easy answer, as transparency is poor on about everything in China. That's a big reason for the complacency too. You could monitor weather conditions from numerous sources. Here's your growing regions: spectrumcommodities.com I think if you saw the Baltic rate weaken some, that might open the way for the Chinese to ship badly needed grain. quote.bloomberg.com I just don't think they (or anybody) have much on hand. cbot.com cbot.com Note flat productivity for nearly a decade: cbot.com I also think there is going to be a big bottleneck this year within the US shipping grains to port, etc. Stuff could pile up and never make it to the dinner table. To jimsioi: I think the Dec corn futures are the way to go. I only wish I'd been smart to anticipate that the specs would decide to short 86,332 futures and options, thus driving the price to near multi-decade lows. The hedge funds and specs set the price and often times they are wild men. That's the risk in trading all these commodities, specs can really get crazy offside. Plus growing conditions in the corn belt have been very good. I do suspect though, that crop condition in the end, won't be quite as priced to perfection as the market thinks. Current crop conditions, updated late on Mondays: cbot.com Ag fundamental reports are here: cbot.com