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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (22651)	8/1/2004 11:22:42 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 306849

RE:"I am suggesting that commercial/industrial real estate seems to be steady for now, attempting to supply a tepid demand in certain fields (office - retail) and a slightly stronger in the industrial side. This is in direct contrast to what most posters here seem to be saying that we are at the verge of a precipice..." Oh OK, OTOH, the topic is RESIDENTIAL. RE:"I am saying to stop using stock market experiences in an attempt to predict the next fall of the real estate market... if it is such a no brainer... why am I reading all these references to the stock market?" Beats me... Perhaps people are referencing the stock market because then and now RE is the baby boomer, chainletters, shaklee, cambridge diet...get rich quick scheme of choice? Not so much that they will bust in the same way. RE:"I have no idea of the Japanese market... but I believe the demographics in Japan and the USA are very different... for one, the Japanese do not have the Chinese, Koreans, et all... crossing their borders, indeed as an island, they are very capable of isolating themselves, which in itself could be a cause of their demise, particularly after they went ballistic a few years earlier... (i.e. no more fools left to hand the bag to). it seems to me it is a NO BRAINER to attempt to compare the Japanese RE market with that of the USA as much as comparing what is happening between Kansas and San Diego... I would say totally moronic... but hey, it is a free country... please indulge... -ggg" The main "possible" comparison I see is in support of your thesis. RE, being a lot less liquid than stocks, likely will take a lot longer to straighten out than did the stock market. RE:"Would it be feasible that what you call parabolic rise in prices, (and I am not saying that it is not so) is perhaps the result of demand for housing, mostly in the lower end of the range that no one had considered ? obviously helped by the low interest rates..." Of course it's demand. Low rates are a major factor as are major tax breaks, especially the one in 1996 and immigration, legal and illegal. RE:"p.s. you seem exasperated by the rise in the value of homes... did you buy recently... you can start looking here...." Not really but gee thanks pal...I can also look in the MLS. Jim