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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (39368)	8/1/2004 11:49:48 AM
From: redfish	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

Bush got a 4% convention bounce in the last elections. If you look at Reagan and Clinton, it appears that a sitting president tends to get a smaller bounce in his re-election bid. Clinton went from 16% to 5% Bush I went from 6% to 5% Reagan went from 8% to 4% Also republican conventions don't seem to provide much bang for the buck in recent elections: 2000 4% 1996 3% 1992 5% This is probably on account of republicans turning their conventions into pro-life fests. Based on past history, Bush will probably get a convention bounce of 3% or less, which will not be nearly enough to put him ahead of Kerry. Once the convention is over, the debates will be the only things that get much attention, and the odds of Bush looking good in those are miniscule. It will be a miracle if he can get through them without experiencing a full-blown psychotic episode that results in one of his secret service detail taking him down with a tranquilizer dart. Source for numbers: swingstateproject.com

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (39368)	8/1/2004 12:11:57 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Respond to of 81568

My name is Teresa Heinz Kerry. And by now I hope it will come as no surprise to anyone that I have something to say. - Teresa Heinz Kerry My right to speak my mind, to have a voice, to be what some have called "opinionated," is a right I deeply and profoundly cherish. My only hope is that, one day soon, women — who have all earned the right to their opinions — instead of being labeled opinionated, will be called smart or well-informed, just as men are.- Teresa Heinz Kerry This evening, I want to acknowledge and honor the women of this world, whose wise voices for much too long have been excluded and discounted. It is time for the world to hear women's voices, in full and at last.- Teresa Heinz Kerry

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (39368)	8/1/2004 5:47:55 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

Kerry's bounce out of the Dem Convention is only 4%, which is the lowest gain ever for a Democrat nominee post convention. Thats because he is already so far ahead.

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (39368)	8/1/2004 6:13:11 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

It's too early to tabulate the convention bounce. We have to wait until Tuesday then average out the various polls. The first two I've seen show a very large bounce and almost none at all. That's why averaging them out will be the best way to see where the candidates stand. Lying about Kerry getting no bounce is silly. Also, even a 4% bounce would be very good considering the fact that about 45% on each side have already made up their minds. More important, follow the battleground state polls. They are actually the only polls that count going forward. So far very encouraging for Kerry and Bush is the one in trouble.

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (39368)	8/1/2004 6:17:40 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 81568

In market language, that 4% post-convention bounce for kerry is nothing more than a dead cat bounce... GZ

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (39368)	8/1/2004 6:39:36 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

Why History Favors Kerry Incumbents running neck-and-neck with their rivals at this stage of a campaign tend to be losers. Has September 11 changed the rules? By Bruce Nussbaum Updated: 8:00 p.m. ET July 27, 2004 As the Democratic National Convention opens in Boston, the party's nominee, John Kerry, is in a "strong position" to win the November election, according to International Strategy & Investment [ISI]. It notes that only two recent Presidential incumbents were behind in the polls at the start of the conventions -- and both lost. more ... search.netscape.com