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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (598322)	8/1/2004 2:16:31 PM
From: Kevin Rose	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

What I would like to see are the actual questions asked, how potential voters are found and identified, and how 'likely' voters are chosen. It would seem that, in the era of 537 vote margins, more 'unlikely' voters would come out this time. I think this is one of those times when it could be that the polls turned out to be radically wrong...

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (598322)	8/1/2004 3:07:17 PM
From: steve harris	Respond to of 769670

kerry behind now usatoday.printthis.clickability.com In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%. terry ought to save his money for hillary soros in 2008 and quit wasting it on kerry

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (598322)	8/1/2004 5:26:18 PM
From: kvkkc1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

Sorry, CNN/Gallup/USA Today sees a Bush bounce in post-convention polling. newsmax.com

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (598322)	8/1/2004 8:55:15 PM
From: Johannes Pilch	Respond to of 769670

Either way, this is a Kerry disaster. Of course Dems will try to put as good a face on it as possible, but this is a disaster and you all certainly know it. Kerry's biggest gun is already fired. And at the very best, he got only four points from it. Now Bush is going into the first earnest phase of campaigning and he is still collecting money. If he keeps hammering the sort of stuff I heard in his speech in Pennsylvania, it will stick. 'We should support our military while they are in battle. I made a request for additional funds to support the military. These funds helped provide armor, machinery, parts and increased salaries. But a few out-of-the-maintstream senators voted against it. Two of those are my opponent and his running mate. Now to explain his vote, he said he voted for the funds before voting against them. Then he said it is a complex issue. There isn't anything complex about supporting our troops!' No doubt about it, that stuff will stick on Kerry. That is why those Marines in Pennsylvania had nothing but antipathy for him. Kerry is stuck here because he is being force the explain himself. The minute that happens, he loses. And if he says nothing, Bush will just keep hammering him. I suspect Bush will lay more of this sort of groundwork in August to cause even more doubt about Kerry. I think that if Kerry cannot do something decisive, and real soon, then what little momentum he now has will quickly fade. Bush will likely pull Kerry back in within a few days. Kerry has failed to define himself and that has left him terribly vulnerable to be defined by others. And to be sure, Bush is surely defining Kerry. Indeed he has already defined him. Kerry's only chance will be to make a point or two during the debates. But even here because the expectations for Bush are so low, there is a lot of room for Bush to strike back, room Bush did not have during the Dem Convention. Kerry has missed a fabulous opportunity and he is going to pay for it. I don't care how good a finisher he is.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (598322)	8/2/2004 6:56:46 PM
From: Johannes Pilch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Well folks, Kenny P. here touted Kerry's four point lead over Bush (see his post), and in response I said "Bush will...cause even more doubt about Kerry. I think that if Kerry cannot do something decisive, and real soon, then what little momentum he now has will quickly fade. Bush will likely pull Kerry back in within a few days." Message 20368581 Today Rasmussen reports that Bush has done exactly what I said he would do. Within a few days he has pulled Kerry right back down into a tie: "Monday August 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern." rasmussenreports.com Kerry has clearly failed to effectively use the single greatest opportunity to define himself in this campaign. There is a name for what has happened here: Disaster.