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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (17148)	8/3/2004 9:25:02 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 28, 2004)—The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 23. The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications - a measure of mortgage loan applications - was 621.4, an increase of 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 617.9 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 0.6 percent compared with last week but was down 34.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased by 1.0 percent to 444.8 from 440.3 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index decreased by 0.1 percent to 1648.8 from 1651.1 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which increased 0.6 percent to 913.7 from 908.7 the previous week. The Government Index increased 0.8 percent to 133.9 from 132.8 the previous week. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 36.8 percent of total applications from 37.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 33.3 percent of total applications from 31.3 percent the previous week. "The purchase market continues very strong, in line with the numbers we have seen for new home and existing homes sales. In addition, while the number of purchase applications has increased by 4 percent over the last year, the dollar volume of applications has increased by more than 15 percent, driven by an average purchase loan size that has increased to $215,800 last week versus $194,900 one year ago," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's vice president of Research and Economics. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.97 percent from 5.96 percent one week earlier, with points remaining at 1.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.33 percent from 5.34 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.41 from 1.38 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs increased to 4.04 percent from 3.93 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.16 from 1.12 from the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. mbaa.org

To: russwinter who wrote (17148)	8/11/2004 11:50:07 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

"Reasons Why Gold Will Rise (revisited)" by Jim Willie CB 321gold.com / jim As the slow "dog days" of summer are upon us, why not a reflection on why gold still makes sense? The first article under my pen name "25 Reasons Why Gold Will Rise" was published in November of 2002 (much gratitude to the Moriartys). The entire motivation for the compendium of justifications was disagreement and disrespect for the few shallow reasons offered by the press & media. The only reason they seemed to understand was MidEast violence. Not the Iraqi conflict, but the Israel-Palestine ongoing endless version. Do they even recall this overused reason now that the focus of MidEast violence has moved 1000 miles east and 1500 miles southeast? Probably not. They would have to be blind not to discern tremendous problems for the US Economy external finances. They overlooked back then a cluster of monetary reasons and economic fundamentals behind an imminent gold rise and USDollar decline. They did not get it right then; they do not get it right now. Let's revisit the listed reasons why gold has risen, as forecasted 20 months ago. They are still relevant for further price appreciation. Since the time of its writing, two additional reasons have been captured, worthy of addendum. the 2 new factors: 26. major gold producing nations are seeing production costs rise in dollar terms from domestic rising currency, which has resulted in sharply declining profit margins, and may force shutdowns in mine operations 27. major smelters are seeing energy costs rise in dollar terms, as the cost of natural gas has increased, which has resulted in the shutdown of many large facilities