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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10116)	8/2/2004 6:35:40 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

<<<U.S. crude-oil futures closed just below $44 a barrel Monday, the highest since oil futures began trading in New York 21 years ago>>> In 1982 there were no trading of oil futures?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10116)	8/3/2004 9:09:38 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. June consumer spending falls 0.7% By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. consumer spending dropped 0.7 percent in June, the biggest decline since September 2001 and steeper than the 0.1 percent drop expected. Meanwhile, personal incomes rose 0.2 percent in June as expected, as wages were unchanged, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. It was the slowest income growth in 14 months. The personal savings rate rose to 2 percent from 1.2 percent in May. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.1 percent in June, while the core PCE index - which excludes food and energy prices - rose 0.2 percent. The core PCE index is up 1.5 percent in the past year. Adjusted for price changes, real consumer spending dropped 0.9 percent in June. Real disposable incomes were unchanged.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10116)	8/3/2004 9:15:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

WOLF Sighted Report: U.S. terror attack may come before Labor Day By Mike Maynard WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- An al-Qaida operative has told British intelligence that the Islamic terrorist organization's target date for staging an attack in the United States is early September, according to a Newsday newspaper report. The report, citing sources who have talked to British intelligence authorities debriefing a "credible" al-Qaida operative, says an attack would take place 60 days before the Nov. 2 presidential election, or roughly coinciding with President Bush's nomination acceptance speech before the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden in New York. Moreover, a greater number of financial institutions than previously disclosed may be at risk of attack, the Newsday report said.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10116)	8/3/2004 9:17:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Fleck moneycentral.msn.com Away from technology, I'd like to dive into a question I received from readers of my daily column: Why are metals are going down and the dollar going up in the face of a stock market that's going down? To my eyes, it appears that the stock market is sniffing out weaker growth at the end of the post-stimulus period I have been discussing. Many of the problems we've seen in recent quarterly earnings reports have prompted folks to start questioning how great the third and fourth quarters will be. High expectations have engendered angst in the stock market. Meanwhile, the foreign exchange market has been living in its own world. Currency markets occasionally dance to their own music, being ruled as they are by short-term, technically oriented traders. Apparently these folks' charts have caused them to conclude that Easy Al was going to be right; that the economy is going to be strong; he was going to raise rates; and inflation will not become a problem. (More below about Easy Al and the Blipsters, and no, this is not a rock band.) It wasn't as though the stock market declined, causing the precious metals to decline (and, by extension, the precious-metal stocks). If you sat here and watched these markets trade tick for tick as I do, you could see that they were, to repeat, in their own world. This does happen from time to time. The mechanisms that "rule" various markets are not like mathematical laws or the laws of physics. In fact, about the only absolute rule I can think of is that over time, buying value generally wins. Just as the key to the stock market will be the realization that Easy Al has it backward and the view I espouse is correct, assuming that's what happens, this shift in psychology will completely undermine the dollar. (A dollar rally cannot fix the stock market or the economy. In fact, an argument could be made that it would be counterproductive for the economy.) The Fed's credibility will be in tatters, and it will be clear that the United States has an enormous economic/financial problem on its hands. Said differently, stock-market weakness will reinforce economic weakness, and the two will undermine the dollar, in turn boosting precious metals.