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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (10121)	8/3/2004 10:37:27 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 116555

From Heinz: South Africa's gold mines - addendum worldmarket.blogspot.com

To: orkrious who wrote (10121)	8/3/2004 3:59:17 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

DROOPY up $.16. Time to short more. -g-

To: orkrious who wrote (10121)	8/3/2004 4:33:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Lemonade for Sale Gross bitches about Hedge Funds pimco.com

To: orkrious who wrote (10121)	8/3/2004 4:34:35 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on oil and other things. Compiled by ILD Date: Tue Aug 03 2004 15:01 trotsky (crude oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved they keep saying it's the 'highest price since crude oil futures were launched in 1983' - but it's more than that. it's the highest price EVER -hitherto uncharted territory. remember what i said about '25 year old resistance being breached' - it's a highly significant event, technically speaking. Date: Tue Aug 03 2004 12:24 trotsky (@Orezone) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as i have frequently mentioned, OZN has made a truly exciting discovery in Burkina Faso. this is now confirmed by the fact that GFI has designated it as one of its top priority exploration projects. click here ... biz.yahoo.com Date: Tue Aug 03 2004 12:16 trotsky (Winston, 11:15) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved where have i put my rose-colored glasses? can't seem to find them... this year alone, Northern American natural gas production has plunged by an aggregate 4.5% - in spite of fresh records in drilling activity both in '00 and last year. this is a sign that NG depletion has become irreversible, and is accelerating. regarding LNG imports, the guy has omitted a not exactly insignificant fact: no-one has thought to build any new LNG terminals yet, aside from the handful that have already existed for the past several years. as far as these terminals go, it's the same as with refineries: NOT IN MY BACKYARD is the battle cry. we can therefore expect significantly higher NG prices in coming years - as evidenced already by the show of strength in recent years, as well as specifically the 'out-of-season' strength this year. as to Saudi Arabia's oil fields, the most important point to remember is that these are well-aged by now. the bulk of the discoveries was made in the 1930's and 1940's, with another round of discoveries in the 60's. via Hubbert's models we have a pretty good understanding these days about discovery and production peaks...granted, Saudi Arabia is the last country to run out of oil, but that is not the point of the 'alarmists' in Simmons camp. the point is that production follows a bell curve - you don't need to 'run out' - it's enough to deplete 50% of what a field contains. from that point onward, production tends to fall by roughly 10% p.a. case in point: Siberia's formerly largest field, which produced nearly 3m. bbl./day in the mid 1980's now produces 300K bbl./day, after having reached its Hubbert peak in 1988. OPEC's reserve estimates meanwhile are totally unreliable - all OPEC members artificially inflated their 'recoverable reserves' estimates when the quota system was introduced - by about 40%, without any corresponding exploration activity that might explain the miraculous increases. also, for some reason, oil seems to be trading at a new all time high as of today. Date: Tue Aug 03 2004 11:57 trotsky (Barton Biggs) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved is short oil? that's practically a guarantee that it will go into the 50's. note also, after having been bearish throughout the bull market of the 90's, Biggs is now ( modestly ) bullish on various stock markets - in the middle of a secular bear market. he now refers to 'the bears' as a species entirely distinct from himself. the guy remains an extraordinarily useful contrary indicator...more interviews please! Date: Tue Aug 03 2004 11:29 trotsky (pm stock money flows) ID#377387: improving after a few days of non-committal to slightly negative flows.