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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17559)	8/2/2004 11:56:34 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

<<But if bookings growth flattens or nearly so, what will market reaction be? We have no precedent for that [back to '95].>> That's true - it has been up and down since 95, no "flat" or slightly upward years. But now, if chip sales continue to increase as time moves forward, semi-equip bookings should continue upward as well. SIA is looking for 4 to 6 percent sequential growth next quarter - that's at a rate of approximately 20 percent yoy. In that kind of a stable environment, semi-equip bookings will continue to increase and earnings will continue to rise. Share prices should go up as well - and here's the "kicker" - the stocks are very undervalued now compared to their present earnings estimates going forward. Catching up should see an even greater rate of rise in share prices. <<If it peaks and drops [as in past cycles, inverted V] how far is the peak away and will the market again anticipate the peak by several months?>> I wish I knew the answer to that one.:) If it happens, buy when earnings estimates are negative and all hope is lost. Just follow the institutional crowd. In hindsight that was easy to do from Oct 02 to Jan 04. Don