Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17562)	8/3/2004 8:58:27 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

They are very undervalued right now, but that is because the "market" expects the semi chip sales and semi-equip bookings to "roll over" in the next few months However, semi equipment sales can roll over without a roll over in chip sales. When the rate of growth of chip sales falls below the rate of growth of new capacity coming on line, capacity utilization starts to fall. Since equipment purchases generally can be divided between technology buys and capacity buys it follows that capacity buys will fall off even as chip sales are still rising. That is the reason why semi-equips may not be under-valued even with rising chip sales. It is highly probable that the scenario of chip sales rising slower than manufacturing capacity will show up in the next few quarters.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17562)	8/3/2004 9:00:32 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

Don, the market does change directions fairly frequently but important turns happen when sentiment reaches extremes. Today sentiment is still way too bullish to expect anything more than a counter trend rally. I'm on record expecting a fall to 394 and then a rally. We went just a little lower. Now I'm on record expecting a counter trend rally to around 450. I've given solid reasons why unless we see a lot of institutional buying on high volume that we should not expect much more than this in the next couple of weeks. Now I'm just going to sit back and watch the market. Good luck to all! RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17562)	8/3/2004 10:37:41 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95657

How often do you hear the idea of investing in the net stocks as "gambling"? Gambling On The Market's Road Kill forbes.com They're also not interested in ASML Holding NV (nasdaq: ASML - news - people ), a Dutch manufacturer of lithography systems for semiconductor manufacturing. The stock has steadily declined 29.2% in 2004 to $14.19. In July, the company beat analyst expectations by a penny, earning $0.16 per share in the second quarter. Also reported in that earnings statement were the company's predictions for good market conditions until mid-to-late 2005. Unfortunately the announcement came at a bad time--the same day that Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ) devastated the chip industry by reporting decreasing profit margins. ASML trades at about 19.5 times expected 2004 earnings.