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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10133)	8/3/2004 10:11:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Weak durables custom.marketwatch.com{2AA7DB69-2BFF-4FAF-B236-341352644B95} Some economists said the slow income growth in June was a statistical mirage, caused by the day of mourning declared for former President Ronald Reagan during the key survey week in June. The 0.9 percent drop in real spending was primarily due to the 5.8 percent decline in spending on durable goods. As previously reported, auto sales were particularly weak in June. Automakers will report on July sales later Tuesday. Real spending on nondurable goods fell 0.7 percent in June, while spending on services was unchanged.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10133)	8/3/2004 10:14:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. personal incomes, consumer spending weak in June - Tuesday, August 3, 2004 1:23:36 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- U.S. personal income growth slowed and consumer spending fell back sharply in June, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday Personal incomes increased 0.2 percent last month, as wages were unchanged. It was the slowest income growth in 14 months, as incomes decelerated from growth of 0.6 percent seen in May Meanwhile, consumer spending dropped 0.7 percent -- the biggest decline since September 2001. Spending increased 1 percent in May. Economists had been expecting spending to fall 0.1 percent in June, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Incomes had been forecast to rise 0.2 percent. The income and spending data are the latest evidence that the U.S. economy paused in June. Job growth, retail sales and industrial production were all weaker than the recent trends With spending falling, the personal savings rate rose to 2 percent from 1.2 percent in May. It's the highest since August 2003 The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.2 percent in June, while the core PCE index -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose 0.1 percent The core PCE index is up 1.5 percent in the past year, the same rate as May's Adjusted for price changes, real consumer spending dropped 0.9 percent in June, also the slowest since September 2001 Real disposable incomes, representing what's left after taxes and inflation, were unchanged for June. It's the weakest reading on disposable incomes since September, when the ripple effect from earlier tax-rebate checks led to a decline In June, proprietors' income increased 0.9 percent. Income from assets increased 0.5 percent. Income from wages was unchanged, although total compensation increased 0.1 percent Weak durables Some economists said the slow income growth in June was a statistical mirage, caused by the day of mourning declared for former President Ronald Reagan during the key survey week in June The 0.9 percent drop in real spending was primarily due to the 5.8 percent decline in spending on durable goods. As previously reported, auto sales were particularly weak in June. Automakers will report on July sales later Tuesday Real spending on nondurable goods fell 0.7 percent in June, while spending on services was unchanged. fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10133)	8/3/2004 10:39:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

In the UK they are trying to get consumers to stop spending In the US, no matter how bad ones's credit is, we want them to spend DATAWATCH Drop in UK retail sales survey to calm fears of half point BoE hike Tuesday, August 3, 2004 12:35:07 PM LONDON (AFX) - The drop in retail sales in July must be treated with some caution, but will certainly calm lingering fears that the Bank of England may hike interest rates by a half point on Thursday According to a key survey released by the Confederation of British Industry, the series of rate hikes delivered by the central bank have begun to bite, though retailers also cited the end of promotions associated with the Euro 2004 football championships for the unexpected slowdown in sales. "Although a rate rise on Thursday is still a near certainty, today's survey should calm recent talk about a 50 basis point rise to shock consumers," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics But despite the evidence of a drop in consumer appetite for spending, there is no certainty that the official data for July to be released by National Statistics on Aug 19 will reflect a similar trend. George Buckley at Deutsche Bank pointed out that the relationship between the CBI survey and official data has been less than perfect "As such, this does not necessarily imply a sharp decline in the official retail sales figures," he said However, he conceded that there may well be retrenchment after the robust retail sales recorded in June. Redwood concurred. The CBI survey in March showed a similar slowdown which failed to materialise in the official data. Furthermore, the July survey only goes up to the 21st of the month, she said Analysts also agreed that consumer spending is unlikely to slump suddenly "More subdued sales of household goods, clothing and footwear may be indicative of lacklustre summer sales, but underlying consumer demand continues to look relatively resilient," said Ross Walker at RBoS

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10133)	8/3/2004 11:07:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. layoffs up 8% in July to 69,572 - Tuesday, August 3, 2004 2:24:23 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- U.S. corporations announced 8.1 percent more job reductions in July than in June, according to a monthly tally by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Tuesday Corporations announced 69,572 job reductions in July, up from 64,343 in June, Challenger reported. The figures are not seasonally adjusted. The 12-month average of job reductions fell to 88,590 in July from 89,886 in June. The 12-month average is little changed over the past five months In the first seven months of the year, layoff announcements are down 24 percent from the same period in 2003 Meanwhile, corporations announced plans in July to hire 26,880 workers, down 30 percent from the 38,377 in June. Most hiring and firing is not announced in news releases, but the figures do give an indication of job creation and destruction in large firms. In May, for example, 4.2 million workers were hired in the U.S. while 4 million left their jobs, according to the latest Labor Department figures. "The job market is still struggling to gain momentum," said Rick Cobb, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Cobb said a surprising 43 percent of human-resources executives said their firms could be altered based on the outcome of the November election fxstreet.com