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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (11076)	8/3/2004 3:46:15 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Analysts cautious on chip sector stocks marketwatch.com Gee, I had no idea!

To: BWAC who wrote (11076)	8/4/2004 11:56:12 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

So the $800 million of 'excess' inventory in a previous article is about 1 day of excess? The very high utilization rates might actually be a contributor to the inventory build. (as usually one walks a fine line because you want shortage but not excessive shortage because it would promote doublebookings). Therefore ultahigh u-rates might not be desirable in the longterm because a shortage (106% u-rate) might force fabless chip makers and OEM's that outsource part of the business to put in additional safety margins. To me easing u-rates start should reduce the tendency of doublebookings as chipmakers start to feel more comfortable about the supply situation Bottomline (to me) is that the inventory build is probably far more complex and complicated - I don't think one can get a handle on it by adding up inventories from various balance sheets of selected customers since the driver for inventory build up can vary case to case (and as we learned from product to product); a few months ago (6 or so) I red that TI was qualifying a third foundry source - that means TI is putting in money and effort into qualifying an additional supplier in order to reduce the risk depending on one or two suppliers which might be overbooked.