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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wharf Rat who wrote (52660)8/3/2004 4:51:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 89467
 
I asked a direct question to a knowledgeable energy expert
how long in days is the pipeline for crude oil to leave a Persian Gulf port, and arrive as gasoline in a dealer gas station ???

he said: 40 to 45 days

on a more practical basis, gas stations take delivery about once per week or so
when they replenish, they raise prices as new supply costs more
in the meantime, they are free to raise prices, but lose business from the guy across the street
or down the road
if they all act together, they all make more money together on margin

dont worry, gasoline will go up a dime very soon
get ready for $2.50 gasoline on the east coast
and $3 gasoline in Marxist California

isnt it amazing that Wall Street firms cling to their "eventual sub-$30 crude price" expectations ???

they are clueless
actually, one must consider that energy companies rarely go to Wall Street for finance capital
they have enormous cash flow
they have other financial backers
so WS maintains moronic forecasts on energy prices, which support lower expected share prices for a raft of energy companies
they do make money on other companies

what they should say, if honest, is .....
"we dont make any investment banking profits with energy companies, so we dont recommend them... so please consider teh stocks which we recommend and make money off"

last summer 2003, they maintained forecasts of $24-30 oil
those numbers came from Arab price band targets
what we may be seeing is the WS brokers not putting much thought into the process, and simply going with OPEC goals

those price bands are not manageable
over a year ago, I predicted oil would be priced in euros, one way or antoher
the "other" way is evident now
with a falling US$, OPEC now moved their price band up to $26-34
even that will not be maintained, since China & India demand is rising

put Russian supply disruption into the equation, and you get a clusterfark
of course, that could be Putin's objective

/ jim