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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BMcV who wrote (17597)	8/4/2004 10:18:16 AM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95656

More, all from CSFB's Tech Daily, dated 8/2/04: Semiconductor Devices Market Weight M.Masdea Data Path;It's The Economy (415)836-7779 •Weaker Than Expected 2Q04 U.S.GDP.2Q04 preliminary U.S.GDP (3%)came in lower than consensus expectations (3.7%), due to weakness in auto sales and rising energy prices.However,1Q04 GDP was revised up to 4.5%from 3.9%, making blended 1H04 growth 3.75%. •Semiconductor Implications: •145 bps Growth Reduction.Semiconductor revenue growth is highly correlated (~0.80) with global GDP growth,and U.S. GDP represents 33% of global GDP.Thus,if CSFB's estimate for 2004 U.S.GDP of 4.3% were reduced to 3.9%, it would imply a 13 bps reduction in global GDP and thus a 145 bps reduction in semiconductor revenue growth. •Global Offset.Recently,Fed Chairman Greenspan described the U.S.economic recovery as self-sustaining and becoming more broad-based,with softness in consumer spending expected to be short lived.In addition,CSFB's Global Economics team noted that the narrowing of the G3 growth differential vs.the U.S.suggests indeed global GDP strength is decreasingly dependant on the U.S.economy. •Already Discounted by Stocks,and Then Some.Current global GDP growth estimates 4.5%and 3.8% for '04 and '05 suggest 36% and -2% semiconductor revenue growth. However, semiconductor growth is likely to come in around 26-28% in '04,and our analysis suggests the market now discounting a downturn slightly worse than a 2% decline off of that lower growth.Thus, we believe risk to the stocks off a lower GDP forecast is minimal.

To: BMcV who wrote (17597)	8/4/2004 11:41:19 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95656

<<We continue to forecast a mild '05 downturn (-2%y/y).>> I don't know about the rest of the thread, but I have a very hard time trying to decipher "word statements" like the above. They seem to change from one news release to the other. There is never any continuity of data posted to show how they get from one point to another point. IMO, CSFB has been predicting a 15 to 20 percent downturn for 2005 for the past 6 months or more, not the 2 percent stated above. Not only that, they have been predicting a "flat" 2H04. <<Sequential growth in 2Q04 came in well above typical seasonal performance>> <<Assuming only a seasonal 2H,the industry is on-track for roughly +28%y/y growth.>> Now CSFB is assuming a "seasonal 2H", what ever that means? Don