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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (19506)	8/6/2004 9:48:56 AM
From: sjemmeri	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78744

Mh, Here's where the thread portfolios were at the end of March: <<The double and safe portfolios diverged this week with double dropping further and now up 7.1 % while safe eked out a small gain and is up 2.4 %. Of course, the major indices are all underwater on the year. siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com; Now, 'double' is down 3.0 (a 10 % drop since end of March) and 'safe' is up 0.8 % or less than a 2 % drop. Safe passed double some time in the last week or so (actually, more like double passed safe in reverse). steve ps My portfolio is mostly 'value' stocks discussed on either this or Dale's thread and biotechs. Certainly, the biotechs have gotten hammered far more than most over that time period. In fact, those who made nice gains by buying bios the last time they were near or below cash value (or thought about it but passed) may wish to take a close look at a strategy of buying a basket of cheap bios again. There aren't as many as cheap as then but many are priced as if there will never be another drug successfully brought to market so they might as well fire everyone and spend the cash on beer.

To: Madharry who wrote (19506)	8/7/2004 1:04:56 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 78744

I can categorically say that I have lost money on everything that I have bought and held on to since 3/31/04. Energy. Commodities, and Biotech. Has anyone made any money since then? The overall portfolio value is down during the second quarter and up quite nicely year to date. Of the items I either sold since 3/31/04 or round-tripped since then: I've got 9 transactions that qualify: 7 were gains and 2 losers. Of the gains, 5 were companies whose fundamentals I liked and whose technicals looked like a big up move might be imminent, so I bought calls, which leveraged the gains nicely. Of the speculative stuff, Dan River lost 75% of my money in them and IPIX made 150% return. The calls were in AAPL, AHC, and APC. Overall, YTD through 7/31/04 the combined portfolios were up 18.8%. The action in August has lessened the performance, for sure, but I haven't quantified it and now won't really do an overall return valuation again until year end. Timba

To: Madharry who wrote (19506)	8/8/2004 9:53:28 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78744

I was down a bit in March, but up 16% YTD 2004, mostly due my my correct call of the market sell-off on 4/23 and 7/1. Made a lot of money shorting and putting QQQ and individual stocks. On July 1, 2004, I posted on SI below text: "June 30 Fed decision of 0.25% interest rate increase pushed my model to another test. When the dust settled down, today's market action gave a "Perfect Confirmation" of the sell-off. July 1, 2004 is the first day of this sell-off according to my technical model. The market indices will very likely test 2004 lows, and likely to break down to new 2004 lows. " Click below link and you will find exactly that. Message 20273919 I said before here, I had given up on "relative value" approach after trying it for couple years. Market top and bottom are actually not impossible to detect. When deeply undervalued stocks are not available, don't buy the "relatively undervalued" stocks, keep cash or short the market, like I did in July 2004.