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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (52126)	8/6/2004 7:20:56 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mr. Macavity, I strongly fear that you are currently playing a losing game. Do you keep careful records of the profits and losses of what "technical analysis" is doing for you? When you look at the price of any commodity producer's stock you are getting the info about what stock traders think about next year and to a lesser degree the ensuing years.For example, every Canadian broker I know of is predicting lower prices for oil and the oil stocks in 2005 compared with 2004. They were also unanimous last year in predicting lower prices in 2004 compared with 2003. Of course, oil has to drop severely at some point. But what makes you believe that the "market" is telling us something important? Commodity prices are real; stock prices are the "Street's fancy. I think you will increase your assets more if you assess the future of the oil business itself rather than what occult prices are telling you. Please keep your own records and see. As they say, "I never met a rich chartist." In my youth they had not yet invented the fancy term "technical analysis". But it's the same old $6&@xx*?, fill in the expletive of your choice.

To: macavity who wrote (52126)	8/6/2004 9:36:24 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Dollar tumbles after weak data shakes market By Jennifer Hughes in New York Published: August 6 2004 11:01 \| Last updated: August 6 2004 13:00 The dollar tumbled more than a cent against the euro on Friday following weak payrolls data that undershot even the most gloomy forecasts. It was the second month in a row that the key figures were weak. Witihin minutes, the euro, at $1.205 as the data were released, had leapt to $1.222 against the greenback. Just 32,000 jobs were created last month, according to the report, compared with analysts expectations of more than 200,000. Moreover, the June report was revised down to show 78,000 new jobs from 112,000 reported previously. The unemployment rate, calculated from a different survey was unchanged at 5.6 per cent. Analysts said the numbers cast doubt on market convictions that a soft month for the economy in June would be replaced by a rebound in July. “Assertions, our own included, that June’s disappointment was an aberration are clearly more difficult to defend in light of July’s massive shortfall,” said Daragh Maher, strategist at ING Financial Markets. “This is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking 25bp next week, but expectations for the pace thereafter will be pared back substantially.”