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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (17312)	8/6/2004 10:37:32 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

There are critical supply problems with energy, and it's long term and structural, so forget about sub $30, or even $35 oil. You will need a lot more than a few percentage points deceleration in economic activity to cure this. Plus I believe it's being fueled by the F3IP (Fed's Fully Inflation Program). However, there has been an heroic effort underway to rebuild inventories, and the markets had a huge break this summer on weather, Venz, etc. There are still some MoP games that could be played with the SPR too. In the short term I see a sharp energy correction only (not a collapse), unless the world economy literally falls off (defined as 5% drop in world GDP) a cliff here.

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (17312)	8/6/2004 2:20:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

crude oil price is driven by all the following, not just 1 - Yukos disruptions and doubt of future flow - Saudi past peak, and giant Ghawar close to dead - Venezuela 20% below 2001 level, due to marxist oil company leadership - Nigerian interruptions - SUV's (nuff said) - China +40% in 1st half 2004 demand, +50% in all 2003 - India increases also - no new refineries in USA since 1980 something - labor demands for higher wages in energy businesses I could go on no one factor Hubbert Peak is a real issue so is Saudi in decline, probably since autumn 2003 / jim