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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sultan who wrote (17700)	8/6/2004 10:12:05 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

>> Re. recession, I also think that is what crowd is expecting.. Certainly it believes, numbers can't be sustained.. OK, here's the issue for us intrepid longs. Even during the depth of the '01 recession, employment in the US did not fall, and GDP fell only slightly. Stock prices dropped because company profits turned into losses, after they had inflated their overhead to bubble dimensions. Now fast forward to '04. Even if the economy does a repeat of '00-'01, will companies report losses again ? Or have they in fact reduced their break-even point ? I think they have. And they will continue to make profits, even if employment and GDP are flat for a couple of quarters. I think today's sellers/dumpsters/shorters are factoring in a steep recession. Possibly due to oil prices. With most people driving these suburban assault vehicles, maybe demand will be sticky for a while. I still don't think current demand justifies the high price. And the gov is creating an artificial shortage by diverting oil into the reserve, in effect, as a parting gift to the current resident's oil buddies. Oil prices were spiking up in '00, and the stock market crashed. I don't know if there was a cause-effect there or not. It just seems high oil price is a bad thing for stocks, whenever it appears.