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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17702)	8/6/2004 1:22:37 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

CSFB has an input on CMOS today. <<Polishing up a gem • We are reinstating coverage of CMOS with a Neutral rating. CSFB had been acting as a financial advisor to NPTT on its merger with CMOS, which closed May 28. Our prior Underperform rating was based in part on CMOS’ lack of a volume product cycle, which we believe is being addressed with the acquisition of NPTest’s Sapphire platform. Cycle fundamentals show signs of weakening – although at a 25% discount to its peer group, valuation provides some support. • Diversified test footprint. CMOS product portfolio is stronger than ever –Sapphire fills a significant need area for the company, and allows CMOS to cut ties with the underperforming Octet. CMOS’ strength has historically been testing high volume, lower speed mixed signal devices. Sapphire expands CMOS’ TAM into high end SOC and logic markets, but can still scale down to test mid to lower speed devices. We estimate that CMOS has increased its TAM by $900 mm+ to $3.5 bb of an estimated $4.7 bb semi test market in 2004. • New estimates. The company is guiding for F3Q revenue and EPS of $164-170 mm and $0.18 to $0.20; as a result of the deal closing in late May, guidance includes only 2 mths of NPTT revenues. Recent checks throughout the group though argue that July was weaker than expected. As a result, we are setting our estimates at the low end of the range $165 mm and $0.17 (street $171 mm and $0.18). CMOS no longer provides order guidance. For FY04 and FY05 we are estimating EPS of $0.30 and $1.00 (street $0.35 and $1.37, respectively). We expect NPTT to be accretive immediately in F3Q04, helping to partially offset worsening cycle fundamentals. • Execution to help narrow the gap. Post merger, CMOS brings a stronger product portfolio to market, and new IDM customers should provide a steadying influence on the model. Against our CY05 estimates CMOS is selling for 1.0x EV/Sales, 4.7x EV/EBITDA, and 8.0x P/E – representing a 25-30% discount to its peers, explained by cycle dynamics magnified by our belief that CMOS needs to be more proactive addressing its expense structure. Capitulation on the latter could help close the gap. Our price target is $8.50, or 8.7x our CY05 EPS representing 8% upside from current levels.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17702)	8/6/2004 1:47:03 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

2pm Stupid hour coming up. I guess they'll program trade it all to new lows. And seem to be getting a head start at 1:45 without the usual brief 15 minute covering blip up period. Volume just now crossed a billion shares on the nasdaq. Still under a billion on the nyse. Must be almost no interest in the markIt. Especially no buy interest. No fear, just apathy. Mom and Pop have exited the building and left the circus to the dayflippers and program traders. Such a sorry state for the world's financial markIt, just a mere unregulated casino of hedge clowns pulling the nickle machine levers.