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To: michael97123 who wrote (17716)8/6/2004 6:01:13 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95632
 
Look into the details of the household survey:

About 175K of the new jobs described themselves as "self employed." Often this means recently started home businesses, which may or may not survive, often just people looking for work and trying to make ends meet short-term.

About 176K were part time jobs.

So only 28K of the new jobs reported in the household survery were new full-time jobs. That's remarkably in-sync with the payrolls survey.

(That said, I do believe that in the 21st century, the old "payrolls" method is going to be less and less relevant, as the definition of "work" and "career" are changing in many fields.)

Also, worth noting that July withholding collections also slowed.

Obviously none of these numbers are a perfect indicator, just trying to find more datapoints than the headline numbers.



To: michael97123 who wrote (17716)8/6/2004 9:28:43 PM
From: BWAC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95632
 
<although the consumer often takes a breather after overspending and borrowing>

Or they defer their discretionary late July spending until the statewide sales tax holiday (August 6,7,8) which covers loosely anything that can be conceived as a school related purchase. Clothing, computers, notebooks, electronics, darn near everything it seems as the "original idea" has expanded into some very loose definitions. By reading the sale ads n the paper today, I think the retailors are defining 'school item' as about everything in the store. You can even back to school shop at Lowe's. Might need a fan for your desk, portable air conditioner for the dorm, bug spray for the roaches.