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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (58586)	8/7/2004 4:06:15 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793957

Jpost editorial on the end of the intifada. I would also add that history suggests that intifadas of various stripes have a sell-by date of about 3 or 4 years, they don't tend to last longer than that: Over a barrel Even now, it can only be said in whispers: We've turned the corner in our war on Palestinian terror. We've defeated the suicide bomber, the most fearsome and effective weapon in the Palestinian arsenal. It's safe to eat out, to get on a bus. There's a bottom to this barrel, as Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter said recently, and we're coming close to it. Well, yes and no. Close on the heels of Dichter's comment were the words of military intelligence chief Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, who does not think the defeat of suicide terrorism means an end to terrorism generally. "Even if the Palestinian terror barrel has a bottom, there will be other barrels." Whether there is one barrel or several, there's no doubt Palestinian terrorist organizations are over it. In 2002, there were 46 successful suicide attacks in Israel. In 2003, there were 18. So far this year, there have been four suicide attacks (including the double suicide bombing in Ashdod), and none since the killings of Ahmed Yassin in March and Abdel Aziz Rantisi two weeks after that. Yet these were supposed to have triggered rivers of blood in Israeli streets. The reasons for the decline in suicide attacks are well known. In the north, the fence has done its job: Afula, once routinely victimized, hasn't seen an attack since May 2003. Israeli sweeps in the territories have put 6,000 Palestinians behind bars, including hundreds of would-be martyrs in jail. The targeted killings have no doubt enraged Palestinians and fueled revenge fantasies. But they have also driven terrorist operations underground, making the coordination and execution of attacks considerably more difficult. The more interesting question is what the effects of this decline will be. In the near term, we can expect Palestinian efforts to succeed in a suicide attack intensify; indeed, the number of attempts has risen from five in April to 22 in June. At the same time, Palestinian violence seems to have turned inward, with something resembling a slow-burning coup attempt in Gaza and parts of the West Bank. Over time, however, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah are not likely to invest their efforts in a tactic that repeatedly fails. The intensification of Kassam rocket attacks in recent days is an indication of an already changing strategy. So far, however, only two Israelis have been killed in Kassam strikes, compared to hundreds in suicide attacks. From the Palestinian point of view, this is not exactly a large return on investment. The real danger now facing Israel is that, as the memory of daily terror attacks dims, the tough anti-terror policies Israel has adopted may come to be seen as needlessly punitive and politically counterproductive. Pressure will build for a let-up, ostensibly as a confidence-building measure in the service of renewed diplomacy. This danger is especially acute if, as expected, Shimon Peres returns to the Foreign Ministry and conducts a foreign policy at variance with the government's. In the coming months, there will likely be another suicide bombing, ostensibly in revenge for something Israel did. Then we will surely be told that Israel has only brought it upon itself by its heavy-handed methods; that there can be no military solution. It's an argument we would be well advised to resist. It is true that terrorists cannot be defeated, because terrorists lack the sense of honor to admit defeat. But terrorism can be stopped. That's what we're doing, and what we must continue to do, however many barrels there are to put our enemies over. jpost.com