Stern's listeners could tip the race, some analysts say
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Popular 'shock jock' bashes Bush in between jokes, porn star interviews
By CHRIS MCGANN
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
Saturday, August 7, 2004
seattlepi.nwsource.com
In Washington and swing states across the country, a manly chunk of politically unpredictable and historically apathetic voters are hearing the call of a New York City shock jock bent on ousting President Bush.
Some analysts predict that syndicated radio host Howard Stern and his legions of listeners, most of whom are young male swing voters, will tip the presidential election in favor of Democratic nominee John Kerry.
Stern now squeezes increasingly long anti-Bush tirades into the program that previously had been known mainly for porn star interviews, gross jokes, crank phone calls and scantily clad female guests -- not political critiques.
Though he supported Bush after the 9/11 attacks, Stern now blasts the president for his positions on the war in Iraq, stem-cell research, the environment, gay marriage and religion.
In the Seattle-Tacoma market, about 300,000 people tune in to Stern every morning. The show ranks No. 1 in the morning for listeners 18 to 34 and second among those 25 to 54, according to Dave Richards, the program director for KISW, the Seattle radio station that carries Stern's show.
No matter how you slice the demographic, men tune in to Howard Stern more than any other morning radio show, Richards said. It doesn't take a genius, he added, to see that if Stern's unorthodox endorsement mobilizes, he could help the Democrats capture a lot of new voters.
"You do the math," Richards said. "Howard Stern is one of the strongest voices for 18- to 34-year-old men, and that age cell is one of the most apathetic in terms of voter response."
In Washington, recent polls suggest about 13 percent of the voters are undecided. Stern could make a difference, said Sam Rodriguez, director of Kerry's Washington state campaign.
"He can be great for us," Rodriguez said. "He can provide us with an extra 1 to 2 (percentage) points. In a close election, that could be the margin of victory."
Republicans dispute that, saying Stern won't have a significant effect.
Kent resident Dan Ross said he is proud to be among Stern's acolytes.
Ross voted for Bush in 2000 but said he'll vote for Kerry this November, in large part because of Stern's escalating lambastes of the Bush administration.
"Howard has my attention," Ross said. "It's the facts (about the Bush administration) that he pulls out."
The 26-year-old apartment leasing and maintenance man listens to the Stern show every day. He said he gets about one-third of his information about the presidential election from Stern and that his level of political interest and activism has spiked this year.
Stern's candor about sex and other typically not-for-prime time topics seems to have generated a great degree of trust among his listeners.
"I appreciate the honesty," Ross said. "It's not fabricated or contrived."
Stern regularly follows up a conversation about how much he'd like to have sex with one of his guests or a good-looking female actor with one about how Bush makes policy decisions using advice he gets from "his imaginary friend," Jesus.
His barbs include everything from calling Bush a coward and a moron to parody commercials such as one mimicking a popular beer ad: "Howard Stern presents: Bad American Presidents -- Today, we salute you President George W. Bush. You committed American troops to war, but when it was your turn to go to war, you went to Daddy and said, 'boohoo,' " the fake ad says over camped up music.
Ross' devotion to the Stern show, along with his voting decision, is part of what many strategists have dubbed "the Stern phenomenon."
A national poll commissioned in June by the New Democratic Network showed that 4 percent of people who are likely to vote are swing voters who listen to Howard Stern.
In an on-air interview, Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democratic Network, told Stern the poll showed listeners were not beholden to either political party and would vote for the candidate they thought was best.
"What we found is that the listeners of your show could play a very, very important role in this election," Rosenberg said.Yier Shi, spokesman for the Republican National Committee, dismissed the poll and idea that Stern may give Kerry the shove he needs to win.
"The NDN is one of many Democratic groups that have spent millions of dollars trying to defeat the president," Shi said. "It doesn't surprise us that they would commission a poll that tries to show that Howard Stern represents the heart and soul of America."
Shi said that Bush and the Republican Party would focus on issues, not celebrity endorsements.
"The president and the Republican Party will speak to Americans about issues such as protecting our homeland security, growing our economy and education for our children; these important issues are what will influence the election," Shi said.
Nonetheless, people like Ross are just the type of voters political operatives have found difficult to reach in the past.
"None of the other messages, the other tools of communication, will get to them," Rodriguez said. "Stern makes his own message."
Shi, spokesman for the RNC, said Republicans are reaching out to that group as well.
"Young people are one of our targeted demographics," Shi said. "We are well on our way to registering nearly 3 million new Republican voters. We are reaching these groups."
John Gastil, associate professor in the University of Washington Department of Communication, said that in a close contest there are many factors that determine who wins. And that although it's likely that each player can take the credit or blame for the election outcome, it's impossible to determine if one or the other was the deciding factor.
"That said, I'm convinced that there is something there -- despite all of the things -- it's still real," Gastil said. "This could be part of a group of factors that tip the balance."
Other experts disagree.
"I'm very skeptical," said University of Washington political science professor David Olson. "In the ocean of the 2004 campaign, Howard Stern is a pebble on the beach. The economy is going to be the single most important factor in how this election is going to go."
Stern became a political lightning rod this spring when the Federal Communications Commission said his show violated broadcast decency rules. Regulators later announced a record $1.75 million settlement with Clear Channel, the nation's largest radio chain, to resolve indecency complaints against Stern and other radio personalities.
Stern has said the FCC crackdown has more to do with his on-air criticism of the administration than the explicit subject matter of his program.
Last month, Stern vowed on the air to dedicate two full weeks for programming to bashing Bush and promoting Kerry.
This is not the first time the self-proclaimed "King of All Media" has used his program to play kingmaker. He has promoted successful Republican campaigns, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, New York Gov. George Pataki and New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
Stern regularly predicts the Bush administration will pull the plug on his program but listeners like Ross disagree.
"They wouldn't shoot down the king," Ross said.
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P-I reporter Chris McGann can be reached at 206-448-8169 or chrismcgann@seattlepi.com |
