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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (17755)	8/7/2004 11:39:15 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

>> i dont understand how the fed could loosen more with it not involving rates. I am missing something. The slight increase in rates (even though it is slight) has made refinancing useless. In the labor report, mortgage related employment dropped by 19,000 jobs. So the US retail economy is deprived of the income that is shifted from mortgage lenders (in China and Japan), to mortgage borrowers. If rates were lower (than 1.00%), then you could get another round of refinancing, with the Fed forcing China to accept lower mortgage income. But if the Fed merely holds rates steady, there might be some latter day refi, from people who could not do it earlier, but not much. At this point I see no difference between 1.25% or 1.5%. As long as inflation is not rising. If inflation gets high, then rates have to be increased to induce a recession, to reduce demand for commodities and labor. So the current question is whether the high oil price is a sign of inflation, or just an isolated specific situation ?