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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (34251)	8/7/2004 2:48:22 PM
From: DELT1970	Respond to of 206321

Offshore Permitting Declined in July, Led by Mid-Water Summary and Recommendation by FBR, Aug. 6, 2004 July permitting activity suggests little near-term upside for Gulf of Mexico (GOM) activity levels. The sequential decline was driven by lower mid-water permits, and we expect continued weakness for secondand third-generation semis. However, ultra-deepwater permits increased, and we expect modest near-term strength for high-spec floaters in the GOM. Shelf permitting was flat and should support jackup activity at its current level in the near term. Key Points Permits declined in July. The Minerals Management Service approved 76 offshore permits in July, down from 83 in June but up slightly from 75 a year ago. The permitting decline occurred in 401 feet to 5,500 feet of water, partly offset by an increase in ultra-deepwater. Shelf permitting was flat. Mid-water depths led the decline. Permits in water depths of 401 feet to 5,500 feet declined to nine from 19 last month, the lowest level since September 2002. This result suggests continued weakness for second- and third-generation semis in the GOM, with negative implications for Diamond (DO - Underperform), which is the most leveraged to that market. Deepwater increased in water depths greater than 5,500 feet. Ultra-deepwater partly offset the mid-water declining, increasing to four permits in July. We expect continued permitting and activity growth in this market to benefit Transocean (RIG - Outperform) and Noble (NE - Outperform), which are the most leveraged to these water depths. Flat shallow water permitting. The MMS approved 63 shallow water permits, flat with July and up from 50 a year ago. Permits in the deepest jackup depths (301 feet to 400 feet) increased to four. This suggests potential near-term strength for premium jackups in the GOM, which would benefit Rowan (RDC - Market Perform) and ENSCO (ESV - Market Perform). This modest increase was offset by permitting declines in water depths below 300 feet. Large operators increased permitting, but levels remain low. Permits by the five largest E&P operators in the Gulf increased in July, briefly arresting their trend of four sequential declines. However, permitting activity by these operators is down 20% year to date, and we expect smaller E&P to continue to take on a more prominent role in the GOM as large E&Ps shift capital elsewhere.

To: Taikun who wrote (34251)	8/7/2004 2:59:30 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206321

An energy related investment question: what are the odds that DAL will restructure itself without bankruptcy (the AMR model) versus through bankruptcy (the United model)?? Lots of opportunities to make money with the winning point of view here, via stock, calls, bonds. Similarly, the wrong tack could lose the entire investment. P.M. me if you have an idea but think this is off topic for this thread. Kb