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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17776)	8/7/2004 9:36:30 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95743

Sorry Gottfried but you are wrong. The S&P 500 for instance actually went a bit lower in October 2002 when we got bullish divergences in the volatility indices and the BP Indices to confirm a bottom was taking place.. Lets take your charts extend them into October and compare them to the VXO and BPNDX: investorshub.com Sorry to correct you. You just needed to extend your charts into October to see that the bottom was lower but there were important positive divergences taking place. In hindsight we should have been becoming fully invested in October 2002. We should have been ready to hold for about 15 months. We should be able to see the next real bottom a mile away! JMHO, RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (17776)	8/8/2004 9:27:37 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95743

Hi G, Thanks for the return post. That NAZ price action was very much like Cohu's bottom in October 18 1998. It dipped to a new low Octber 10ish and then retested (marginally violated the bottom to 12,closed @12 5/8) and then never looked back. The move from 14 to 12 was very quick and occurred in the last days of the decline.It formed a very scary double bottom. This decline followed a pretty good Rally in 97,but this Rally failed as the economy was not yet ready to recover - much like the failed Rally we had in 01/02. There is a possibility this Rally will fail also - but I think that corporate profitability will get traction here.We're seeing consumer electronics come back and embrace new wireless devices,business telecom has many new cost saving devices that have good paybacks (VOIP),Terrorism is forcing the additional investment into IT redundancy and diaster recovery plans. I thinkwe make a bottom at a higher level and then go higher into another slow long consolidation. Good ole patient investing.As long as the companies R&D creates demand for new upgrades that are more efficient, the leaders will /must invest to maintain their lead. There are some dogs out there that may not make the trip:EGLS/ASYT/ATRM/MCTI and maybe others. This dip may just give us some of the acquisitions that we never saw.Growth may well be embraced by acquisition if global growth only gives us modest upcycles. Nothing wrong with the big boys using their substantial positive cash flow by paying out premiums to small healthy Niche Leaders. I'm going to give it this week to show me that this is a head fake before the 50 pops over the 200. stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyiay[pc50!c200!f][vc60][iUb5!Uj[$ndx]]&pref=G One would expect the cross over to be approached at least a second time and if it occurs to be tested at least onec for support vs resistance we now are watching. That puts us up to Q3 earnings before we get any uptrend in earnest I'd guess. They say in down markets looks for stocks that move against the general market - I thought Cohu did a great job last week popping into the 20's.Maybe that was its last gasp. Cohu is making good money and I think they will continue to.The yield efficiencies of 300MM REQUIRE ore testhandlers. Heck they can't stack em on the floor you know. As the 30 300mm lines AMAT execs are watching - many more Summit testers with ATC will be needed. As these companies make money - so too will their stock price go up. Bottomline. Thanks again for the post. Keep looking for that double bottom in your favorite stock.The one that resists the general market trend and has big up volume weeks vs small volume down weeks. That's where your next multi bagger lies. It appears we'll be able to buy them only painfully so cheap in the near future!GG Bob