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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (10332)	8/8/2004 1:28:00 AM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

>Please forgive me for being blunt here but quite literally that is assinine.> You are forgiven. I was just giving an illustration on how it is not necessary that US could have a net loss of jobs from offshoring in the long run. Whether the extra job buying power is 3.5 jobs or 1.02, or whether the US company just distributes the money as dividend, there are many ways things could go. >We have lost millions of jobs to India and China and Bush has overall lost 1.5 million jobs in 4 years. According to your silly math Bush should have gained 3.5*2.6 jobs or 9.jobs per 1 million jobs created. So your analysis is downright silly at BEST.> India has gained about 700,000 jobs in offshore service industry over the last 15 years. And they serve US, Canada, UK, Australia, Europe, Japan, Middle East and other countries. So obviously they could not have stolen all the jobs that the US has not gained. You also need to count the jobs lost by automation. How about the efficiencies gained by computerization in the last 15 years? When I started my first consulting job in 1989, there was a pool of 10 word processors for 100 people. Slowly the number decreased to 3-4. So 60 percent of word processing jobs were lost. Offshoring was responsible for zero job loss there. What about the dot com losses of jobs, jobs that were created in the 1995-2000 period and disappeared? Voice-recognition got rid of telephone operators. Automation in factories reduced labor requirements. Web order entry decreased number of customer service people. EZ Pass removes toll collectors. Cars have gotten better much more reliable over last 15 years. Less visits to the car mechanics means fewer maintenance jobs in that field. Why don't you count those before dismissing my analysis? -Arun