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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (17820)	8/9/2004 11:42:05 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Thanks for your reply. As you know, I am rather skeptical of metaphorical interpretations of raw market data, such as the VIX being "the fear indicator" or showing "complacency". Perhaps the VIX shows "rationality", or "confidence in the predictability of market outcomes". The reason I believe options market volume to be significant is that as there are more participants in any market there are more people competing to take the opposite side of any trade, which should reduce prices. So any absolute target for the VIX should reflect this change in the overall options market. Separately, I am at a loss to understand how any indicator as widely known and followed as the VIX could have any predictive value, except as far as actually creating a certain market behavior, such as buying at certain "significant" levels. I understand that you are not so interested why these things might not work, as much as that they have worked. And it would be hard to claim there has been no VIX/SOX correlation. I am just always on the lookout for things that might make the future to be less predictable than we hope.