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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17824)	8/9/2004 12:11:36 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

So trough level for AMAT according to RBC is around $13.13? Make a mental note to see if they change their tune in the future. $25 target on the upside... $13 possible on the low side. AMAT: Reit Sector Perform - We expect Applied to post a strong July Q3. We expect the company to meet or slightly beat our estimates of $2.15B and $0.25.Flat Q4 order guidance: We believe that the order book for Oct Q4 looks like it will be slightly up (a few percent). However, we do expect management to be somewhat cautious and so we expect Q4 order guidance of +/- 5%.AMAT is currently trading at 14.2 X our CY2005 EPS estimate of $1.15. Our Price target of $25 is based on 22X our CY 2005 EPS estimate. We see approximately 20% downside risk to a "trough" valuation level, but strong long-term earnings potential. We continue to rate the stock Sector Perform and Average Risk.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17824)	8/9/2004 1:38:45 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Don, Laszlo Birinyi on market direction forecasts investorshub.com Could you get his 2,500 page report and give us an executive briefing? Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17824)	8/9/2004 3:30:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

TSMC, UMC July sales defy gloom, hit record highs <<9 August 2004, 03:05am ET TAIPEI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - TSMC (TW:2330) and UMC (TW:2303), the world's top two contract manufacturers of microchips, posted a jump in July sales to a record on the consumer electronics boom, defying investor fears of an imminent technology slump. The solid results came as investors have dumped semiconductor stocks, fearing a pile-up of chip inventory lower down the tech production chain would herald the start of a downturn for the cyclical industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) (NYSE:TSM) said its July sales climbed to T$23.15 billion (US$679 million), advancing 31.2 percent from a year earlier and up 2.8 percent from June to set an all-time high for a fourth consecutive month. Chief competitor United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) said its sales jumped nearly 60 percent year-on-year to reach T$11.2 billion and also advanced on June's T$10.3 billion to break a record set in November 2000, when the sector was enjoying it's previous peak. The results were in line with the companies' own estimates. TSMC had forecast third-quarter shipments to grow 4 to 5 percent from the April-June period, while prices would remain steady or even edge higher. UMC, which is sprinting to catch up with TSMC, said third-quarter shipments would rise 15 to 16 percent sequentially, while prices would gain 3 to 4 percent. The results came after the close of Taipei trade. Shares in TSMC, which is nearly one-fifth owned by the Netherlands' Philips Electronics NV (AMS:PHG), ended down 1.59 percent at T$43.3, compared with a nearly flat benchmark TAIEX <.TWII> share index. TSMC shares have gained 5.6 percent since it made an upbeat third-quarter forecast on July 29, though the shares are still down 22 percent since the beginning of the year, hit by a string of analyst downgrades and warnings of an imminent downturn. UMC shares have gained 2.8 percent since July 29 and lost 18.7 percent since the beginning of the year. TSMC made record earnings in the second quarter, fuelled by demand for chips used in camera phones and DVD players. But some companies have warned demand could slow in the third quarter as downstream clients accumulated stockpiles of unused chips. TSMC Chairman Morris Chang said in July he expected inventory levels to go back to normal by the end of the year with continued growth for the semiconductor sector in 2005, scoffing at worries of a looming downturn.>>