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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BMcV who wrote (17854)	8/10/2004 10:40:38 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 95622

When a sector downgrade does not move the market lower, a bottom may be a hand. DJ Lehman Cuts Semiconductors To Neutral From Positive

To: BMcV who wrote (17854)	8/10/2004 9:13:01 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 95622

Something is always peaking...back in January it was order growth rate for equipment (second derivative), than margins for chip makers, than U-rates at foundry level and now units - and guess what ? perhaps even inventory build up The question is how to manage situations when u-rates hit 106% or foundries are sold out for one or two quarters? Is it a matter of diligence? "to cause National a problem because they are not known for diligent management of their distribution channel, Extremely high u-rates are not really desired; IMHO ultrahigh u-rates (as a result of lack of investment in the past)are promoting doublebooking and inventory build up and probably as u-rates peak so will the tendency to doublebook (looking at Gottfried's chart capex versus IC sales the situation today still looks much better compared to 2000/2001 which had high level of fab investment, high u-rates which probably also encouraged double booking and a significant drop in end demand - I think based on Brian's post we know that the inventory situation is much different based on $ inventory, and we have NO killer application (which is good) rather a broad based recovery and Capex is about half of what it used to be in 2000/2001) "I've been hearing that the distribution channel had significantly overbooked and was trying to control inventory and that was going to cause National a problem because they are not known for diligent management of their distribution channel," Freedman said. "I view this as a sale management problem, combined with end-market issues that have started to show up." Some encouraging sign from the inventory bubble front: "In addition, Intel’s 865 chipsets still remain the mainstream in the market, and strong demand has even has helped ease an oversupply of the 865 chipsets, which had been dumped on the market prior to the launch of the 915/925 chipsets, the sources noted." Intel to lower 915 chipset prices in September; oversupply of 865 chipsets eases Printer friendly Related stories Comments Email to a friend Latest news Charles Chou, Taipei; Steve Shen, DigiTimes.com [Tuesday 10 August 2004] Intel plans to cut prices for a complete lineup of its chipsets, including the 915 family, in the latter half of September, aiming to boost the relatively lukewarm sales of its 915 chipsets, according to sources at motherboard makers and in the channel. The planned chipset price cuts, along with the forthcoming August 22 reduction of prices for Intel’s socket LGA 775 Pentium 4 and Celeron D processors, should administer a shot in the arm for the PC industry as it migrates to the 915 platform, the sources said. The sources stated that current sales of devices that support the 915 platform, including sales of socket LGA 775 CPUs, 915 chipsets and PCIe graphics cards have lagged far behind expectations, with PC users reluctant to adopt the new platform. In addition, Intel’s 865 chipsets still remain the mainstream in the market, and strong demand has even has helped ease an oversupply of the 865 chipsets, which had been dumped on the market prior to the launch of the 915/925 chipsets, the sources noted. The price of the 865G chipset, for example, has been raised by an average of US$0.30-0.40 per unit by non-designated distributors recently, indicating an easing of the oversupply situation, according to sources. Efforts by Intel to control the supply of the 865 family lineup also helped improve the inventory adjustment, said the sources.