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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17862)	8/10/2004 11:00:03 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

Thanks G, Don't look now but bad news (Lehman downgrade ). is being greeted as a positive. Shows how beat up we are.. Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (17862)	8/10/2004 4:40:26 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

16:33 NSM cuts Q1 revenue guidance 16:33 NSM cuts Q1 revenue guidance (15.70 +0.08) Co lowered its revenue guidance for Q1 (Aug). NSM's new guidance is for revs to decline 4-5% from the $571.2 mln revs achieved in the recently completed Q4 (previously guided on 6/10, during its Q4 earnings conference call, for Q1 revs of flat to up 3% sequentially), Reuters consensus is $579.1 mln. During that 6/10 conference call, co indicated that turns orders were expected to decrease during Q1. However, so far this quarter the actual decrease has been much more significant than originally expected. The lower than expected turns activity is primarily due to a combination of factors. The first and most significant is related to the distribution channel, where NSM's distributors slowed their order patterns more than expected and adjusted inventory levels to reflect shortened lead times. In addition, growth rates for flat panel display products softened and demand from certain Chinese wireless handset manufacturers was weaker than expected. Looks like there were some channel stuffing going on in prior quarters ? the spint master turns out to be right, and Kurlak is wrong. And dont trust company's own spint - NSM has been bullish on its outlook all along. 10-Aug-04 09:28 ET In Play National Semi sees estimates cut for second day in a row (NSM) 15.88 : BofA Sec taking a more conservative stance on the co's forward outlook as indications thus far point to weaker than expected progress for the August Q. While they believe that NSM's Aug Q outlook for sales (flat to up 3% Q/Q) had factored in a seasonal order slowdown, their sense is that demand has been slower to materialize than previously expected. In particular, the firm believes the demand trends for handset and LCD components - two areas that have seen strong growth at NSM - have seen some moderation in growth rates, due in part to a (component) inventory build in these segments. To the extent that end-demand does not improve materially from current levels, they think that their prior estimate for FY05, as well as the current Street consensus, is likely to prove aggressive. New CY04 and CY05 EPS estimates are $1.21 and $1.35, respectively, down from $1.23 and $1.41. Tgt is cut to $18 from $24.50... Briefing.com Note: Yesterday, Merrill Lynch slashed its FY05 est to $1.02 from $1.33 and FY06 to $1.02 from $1.52. Since yesterday, NSM FY05 consensus (Reuters) has fallen to $1.30 from $1.32 and FY06 to $1.43 from $1.47.

To: Gottfried who wrote (17862)	8/10/2004 6:03:50 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95640

CSCO note they spent almost all their cash flow to buy back their stock. Had that not happened, the EPS would be lowered (7% reduction in outstanding stock) After cashing out his stock options in Nov 2003 (those in lieu of his pays) now Chambers decided to take salary instead. Is there a lesson somewhere ? 17:42 CSCO Cisco Systems: Conference Call Summary II (20.46 +0.41) -- Update -- What is interesting about the CSCO earnings is that the company clearly feels that they have turned the corner out of what was a tough environment. CEO is taking a salary for the first time since May 2001, and new initiatives have started to take hold. Its advanced technologies business (which includes IP phones, storage and security among others) are the future drivers of CSCO. However, the conservative 0%-2% growth in the coming quarter is what is being focused on. The future is less cloudy for CSCO, but with guidance coming in below the street and margins continuing to slip ever so slightly, investors have decided to hold off on CSCO until the numbers actually match the co's optimism.... CSCO trading at $19.22 in after hours, down 6% 17:28 CSCO Cisco Systems: Conference Call Summary (20.46 +0.41) On call, co guided revs to up 0-2% sequentially (consensus +2.9%) and says sees Gross Margins of 67-68%... Mgmt notes that they were pleased with revenue and order growth in a number of product and geographic areas. Co is focused on gross and profit margins while noting that gross margins were lower from last quarter. Co repurchased $2B in stock for the year. Can still repurchase $8B, and since inception of buyback, shares outstanding have decreased more than 7%. Bookings grew slightly faster than revenue in the qtr, but slower than the previous year. Mgmt notes that quarter was linear. Switches accounted for 41% of total revenue, while Routers accounted for 24% of total revs. Sales discounts and increase in inventories contributed to the lower Gross Margins. F3Q04 had an extra week, which was noted several times for apples to apples comps. Product book to bill was 1 for the quarter. Product backlog was $1.9B at end of FY04 compared to $2.0B in FY03. DSO's were 28, up from 27 the previous quarter. Inventory increases were higher due to work in process and higher finished goods (Linksys was noted as having high inventory ahead of the back to school season). Since May 2001, CEO has had salary of $1.00 with no bonus per year; effective August 1, 2004 the salary moved to $350,000. Co saw normal seasonality in all geographic regions. "Australia had an outstanding quarter." India is seeing 100% growth year over year. Co shipped 470K IP phones and took orders for over 500K... CSCO trading at $19.13 in after hours