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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10499)	8/11/2004 9:39:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. weekly mortgage index off 0.7% Wednesday, August 11, 2004 11:21:19 AM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Applications for mortgages in the U.S. declined slightly last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. The weekly application index fell 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. It's down 24.2 percent from a year ago. The index for purchase loans fell 2.7 percent while the refinance index rose 2.5 percent. The rate for a median 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 5.80 percent from 5.97 percent a week earlier.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10499)	8/11/2004 9:42:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

IEA says high oil price damaging economy, though supply buffer remains UPDATE Wednesday, August 11, 2004 10:46:22 AM (updates with comment on Yukos, Russian future oil production) PARIS (AFX) - Current high crude prices are damaging the global economy, but while the oil market remains tight, producers retain a buffer to counter potential supply disruptions, the International Energy Agency said In its August monthly report, the Paris-based organisation raised its projection for global oil demand growth in 2004 to 2.53 mln barrels per day from the 2.5 mln it forecast in July, while leaving its estimate for 2005 unchanged at 1.8 mln In July, OPEC crude supply averaged 29.1 mln barrels per day, soaring from 28.6 mln in June to its highest level in years, it said. Supply by OPEC states excluding Iraq rose to 27.1 mln bpd compared with a quota target of 25.5 mln The IEA said concerns remain over the extent of the cartel's spare capacity, and estimated this to have been around 1.2 mln bpd in July on paper However, OPEC's "effective" spare capacity - excluding Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia - was in fact less than half this level OPEC capacity excluding Iraq and Venezuela should increase by a net 370,000 bpd by the end of 2004 and by a further 2.1 mln in the period 2005-2007, the agency said Overall, the current oil market is tight and current oil prices are a concern and "are causing economic damage" However, "the market has been living with greater uncertainties for quite some time now ... (and) it has a buffer to cope with potential supply disruptions." Supply is running ahead of demand, and Saudi Arabia has the ability to raise production in the short term Also, the IEA has more than 1.4 bln barrels of strategic stocks at the ready, should they be needed Continuing the positive tone, the organisation said that, despite tax claims threatening the future of Russian oil giant Yukos, these circumstances are unlikely to affect the country's status as a leading oil producer The IEA still sees healthy output growth in Russia, pegging its year-on-year estimates at 710,000 bpd for 2004 and 425,000 bpd for 2005 Even if Yukos is forced into bankruptcy, keeping the oil pumping will probably remain a priority with the company under administration, it added Also, "recent statements by established players Shell and BP suggest they remain confident they can do business in Russia." On the demand side, short-term growth in the OECD regions appears set to moderate in the second half after surging in the second quarter, the IEA said. In addition, North American demand, which had been leading OECD growth, is expected to show much slower gains Outside the OECD, demand growth in China is also expected to slow in the second half But while the prospect for a slowdown there is not in doubt, its scale is far less certain Despite ongoing demand-side restraint measures, "supply-side measures to boost China's ability to meet soaring energy needs may ultimately lead to a rebound in the pace of demand growth." Global oil supply rose by 550,000 bpd in July to 83.5 mln. In June, OECD industry oil stocks rose by 16 mln barrels to 2.534 bln. Days of forward demand cover remained low at 52 days, fractionally higher than in May fxstreet.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10499)	8/11/2004 11:05:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

OPEC oil production rose 2.5% in July: Platts survey Wednesday, August 11, 2004 12:59:32 PM NEW YORK (AFX) -- OPEC's member, including Iraq, pumped an average of 29.67 million barrels of crude per day in July, an increase of 730,000 barrels, or 2.5 percent more than it pumped per day in June, according to Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials. Excluding Iraq, July OPEC production increased 480,000 barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, to 27.72 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest per-day increase, as production grew by 300,000 barrels, or 3.3 percent, to 9.4 million barrels a day. "Now the focus turns from what the countries are producing relative to their quota and moves to what they are producing relative to their capacity," said John Kingston, director of oil at Platts. "A few hundred thousand barrels per day might be carved out here and there from countries other than Saudi Arabia, but it's Riyadh that will make the difference." He said Saudi spare capacity has been estimated as lows at 500,000 barrels a day and as high as 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day. September crude futures were last trading down a dime at $44.42

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10499)	8/11/2004 11:40:39 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Gold Fields, Iamgold agree to $2.1 billion combination (GFI, CA:IMG) By Padraic Cassidy NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Gold Fields Limited (GFI) will combine its international assets with Iamgold Corp. (CA:IMG) in a $2.1 billion deal, the companies said Wednesday. Gold Fields will own about 70 percent of the equity of the new company, to be renamed Gold Fields International Limited, and current Iamgold shareholders will own the remaining 30 percent and receive a special cash dividend of 50 cents Canadian per share. Iamgold will purchase the assets of Gold Fields located outside of the South African Development Community region by the issuing about 351.7 million ordinary shares.