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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: macavity who wrote (52238)8/11/2004 5:18:59 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
<Dollar strengthening is the last thing this market wants, needs or possibly expects. >

What?!! Speak for yourself. My lonely little part of the market has been waiting for years for the US$ to strengthen and I want it to do a major strengthening.

This process has now taken 5 years [from May 1999 when I was sure it would start any day now = the market bust, the interest rate slashing, the trough, the market clearing, the interest rate recovery which we are barely entering].

The whole process has taken 2 or 3 years longer than I guessed it would take and it's not over yet.

I want to see the US$ go back to 40c to NZ$1 compared with the current 65c to NZ$1. NZ's economy is doing well, farmers are getting great prices and tourists keep coming, so maybe that's a stretch.

Mqurice



To: macavity who wrote (52238)8/11/2004 5:28:48 AM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Not sure the dollar is the right place to be at this point. Lots of things seem to be unraveling right now: Iraq, Oil, North Korea, US-Iran, Al Queda threats, China-Taiwan, the US economy. In the past unraveling meant dollar strength, but it seems that almost everything that is unraveling right now affects negatively the US.



To: macavity who wrote (52238)8/13/2004 9:57:05 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 74559
 
<<Dollar strengthening>>? It's not happening!!



To: macavity who wrote (52238)8/20/2004 11:02:17 PM
From: Taikun  Respond to of 74559
 
<long-term yields collapse.>

AG had better be careful, the entire unwinding of the bond part of the carry trade seems to be predicated on decent yields so traders can unwind positions.

If the market believes DU, then why GU?