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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (17932)	8/11/2004 9:18:33 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

Hi Mike, It is a market imbalance,created to get the smart money into a very dynamic sector that has rightsized itself. As the revenue stays flat and/or goes up to market share winners the profits will be substantial. This fact is not being touted now - they'll save it for later,after there position is made. Markets are best time when these inequities are at there fullest out of proportion status. Dvdw has it right - he calls it a rinse cycle. I've never been perfect on these - I always buy early and then hold on tenaciously. These are great add to spots - but you have to live throught the price contraction. Downward price action is always hard to buy into. Best clues are a fast price decline after a substantial reduction has already occurred.You'll see increased volume,increased vix,high put/ call over 1,advance/declines volume 9 to 1 ratio and very often a double bottom that has positve divergences with several indicators and I like to see the ADX crossover - that's the best one to keep me holding till I see the whites of their eyes. This morning is getting really close. Keep in mind that this doesn't allhappen in just one day. In 1998 Intel and Amat bottomed and reversed then two weaks later Cohu had its double bottom reversal. We're watching a setup for great buys. Those companies that have rightsized and are growing their market share/revenue will do wonderfully. I'm thinking the big abusers of options may get a colder shoulder through out the entire run up and that is fair medicine to their greed in my Opinion. Bob