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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (17961)	8/11/2004 11:21:39 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95633

Do you have any details of S&P downgrade? I agree the market is not discriminating enough about "tech". Here is a telling phrase from Briefing: "Cisco's guidance is barely relevant, but considering valuations in the tech sector, it is an issue...". It is an article of faith that tech valuations are high, while in our subsector, they are low on almost any measure, P/S, P/B, PEG, PE. Your previous point about the four horsemen of the last bull market having become mature companies is also relevant, but overlooked. They ARE expensive, and they ARE tech, as far as the media are concerned.

To: The Ox who wrote (17961)	8/11/2004 11:31:05 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95633

That's a good point Michael. <<there are 10 to 1 bears when it comes to the semis.>> There tends to be a lot of pessimism at the "bottoms". This may not be a major bottom as RtS points out, but we should be getting close to a major bounce from here for the semis and semi-equips. Going back in history, the falloff in valuations in these sectors since January are very similar to prior "cycles". Put another way, the CSFB's of the world have already caused a "down cycle" equivalent of many down cycles in the past. We could find a "short term bottom" here and find a good rally soon. Don