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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17974)	8/11/2004 12:29:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95652

<< Nat'l Semi. downgraded following Q1 revenue warning By Tomi Kilgore 08/11/2004 06:46 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - National Semiconductor was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Smith Barney following the chipmaker's warning late Tuesday that fiscal first quarter revenue would fall short of expectations. Analyst Craig Ellis also cut his stock price target to $16 from $26, and his earnings forecasts out to 2006. "In summary, fundamental and psychological factors create a meaningfully diminished catalyst profile at this late stage in the [semiconductor] cycle for National Semiconductor," Ellis said in a note to clients. The company said late Tuesday that it expected sales for the quarter ending August to decline 4 to 5 percent from the sequential fourth quarter due to slower orders and inventory adjustments at its distributors. The stock closed Tuesday up 8 cents at $15.70, but fell $1.49, or 9.5 percent, to $14.21 in after-hours trading.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17974)	8/11/2004 12:31:06 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95652

Don, I see that CSFB KNEW there were evolving problems and the downgrades the morning after CSCO and KLIC news are just a coincidence. I'm sure glad they give their guidance for free. <g> Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17974)	8/11/2004 4:33:25 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95652

"Our initial thesis that the back end was betterinsulated to a slowdown in capital spending was predicated upon relativelyhealthy end demand... why would the increasing shift to 300mm "benefit" back end companies? as far as I understand they (back end) don't care whether the dies are coming from 200 mm wafer or 300 mm wafer Brooks Automation To Gain From Shift To 300mm 08.05.04, 9:49 AM ET Credit Suisse First Boston said that judging from the fiscal first-quarter report from Asyst Technologies (nasdaq: ASYT - news - people ), the order mix in semiconductor equipment is shifting to 300mm from 200mm. CSFB said, "Several months back we suggested that the relative order mix in the second calendar quarter would shift away from 200mm towards 300mm. Asyst's comments last night provide additional evidence of this--with 200mm orders declining 32% sequentially versus 16% sequential growth in 300mm." The research firm said an unfavorable mix of 200mm will drive lower gross margins and lower profitability for Asyst. CSFB said a decline in 200mm orders affects several other companies in its coverage, "most notably" Axcelis Technologies (nasdaq: ACLS - news - people ), as well as Applied Materials (nasdaq: AMAT - news - people ), Lam Research (nasdaq: LRCX - news - people ) and Novellus Systems (nasdaq: NVLS - news - people ). However in increasing mix shift to 300 mm will benefit Brooks Automation (nasdaq: BRKS - news - people ), "which is better positioned against Asyst at 300mm than it was at 200mm." As far as I understand BRKS is key supplier for robotics @ LRCX and NVLS;