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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (17598)	8/11/2004 2:12:08 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 110194

As you were responding to me I added to my post if you want to go back? Yes long term.....but I disagree that oil will come down hard but I do believe that housing will really get smacked short term as housing (in N America) is not supply problem like oil. Oil cannot be a bubble if supplies are running out. Supplies of homes will never run out.

To: ild who wrote (17598)	8/11/2004 2:26:36 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

The U.S. Treasury announced a budget deficit of $69.2 billion in July after posting a surplus of $19.1 billion in June. The July deficit was only marginally higher than expected by market players, but it was significantly larger than the average deficit recorded in July over the past several years. Total government receipts rose 8.8 percent in July relative to a year ago. Individual tax receipts jumped 11.8 percent from year ago levels while corporate tax receipts jumped nearly 88 percent! Granted, the level of corporate tax receipts is typically small during the month of July, but the level was the largest since 2000 (for the month of July). Looking at the other side of the equation, Treasury outlays jumped 14.5 percent in July relative to a year ago. Granted, transfer payments that would have been paid out on August 1 (a Sunday) were paid out on July 30. This should reduce the August outlay on transfer payments by a small amount. Defense spending rose 27.7 percent in July relative to last year. While social security payments were only up 3.7 percent since last July, Medicare payments rose a whopping 20.9 percent from year ago levels. Through July, with only two more months to this fiscal year (2004), the fiscal year to date budget deficit amounts to $395.8 billion compared with last year's deficit of $324 billion for the same period. Market Consensus Before Announcement Over the past ten years, the federal budget has averaged a $22.4 billion deficit during the month of July. In July last year the Treasury deficit was more than twice as large as the average so it wouldn't be surprising to see a large budget deficit this year as well. The administration recently estimated the total budget deficit will amount to $480 billion for fiscal year 2004. This is slightly lower than the estimate announced earlier in the year but corresponds to budget deficit estimates made by private economists.