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To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/11/2004 4:29:17 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

HA, <.. but I see a 95% probability of $26 oil within two years and 50% probability within a year.> Interesting proposition. On what are you basing such a prediction? Cyclicity alone is not enough I think. You have to balance this factor against the fact that USD$26 dollar today is not what it was 5 years ago. It buys a lot less. You have also to factor in the enormous growing demand of Asia, demand that did not exist 5 years ago. There is also the possibility that global world production is now peaking. I am not suggesting any future price but just suggesting that the odds do not support a return to such low prices.

To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/11/2004 4:42:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 110194

RE:""Please God, just one more oil boom and this time we won't piss it away"." How about one more Bre-X or a good ole' fashioned stock market bubble? jajaja

To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/11/2004 5:43:48 PM
From: stevenallen	Respond to of 110194

Being an all knowing entity, God already knows that you'll just piss it away again - it's part of the grand design, mortal flesh and all that. Why fight the inevitable? Instead, I suggest you pray that you'll enjoy pissing it away even more this time around than the last! Now that would be something, wouldn't it? PS - I read Roach regularly and he clearly is no cheerleader for the status quo. Xie seems to know his stuff as well. That said, I have no idea about the price of oil, but I'd like to ask Cheney what he thinks. I bet he could lay out all the scenarios and how to extract some profit from any number of them. I don't agree with his politics but I must admit that he's an excellent energy Czar.

To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/11/2004 8:34:43 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 110194

<<Cyclicity in oil prices is normal, expected and will continue to occur>> Tell that to those who will be blowing up every pipeline on Earth if the US doesn't stop badgering Islam. But as I said, (Andy is not God) it is supply problem this time. Time will tell. Don't bet on lower oil prices anytime soon just because the USA thinks it deserves it.

To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/11/2004 11:23:59 PM
From: Steve Lokness	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hugh, your comments about oil price declines remind me of a conversation I had with an older gentleman almost 25 years ago. He told me that interest rates - then pushing 20% for home mortgages - would decline back to reasonable single digits. I of course thought that he was a fruitcake. Steve PS: This is no prediction of where oil prices will go.

To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/12/2004 1:18:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Check this out Message 20403168

To: Hugh A who wrote (17604)	8/12/2004 10:37:11 AM
From: Gemlaoshi	Respond to of 110194

Hugh, <<Calling for oil prices above $44 forever is ludicrous>> Without commenting on your specific price points, you are correct in pointing out that energy prices have always been highly cyclical. Coupled with current supply/demand constraints, speculators are pushing the energy situation into the economic forefront. The old argument in the early '70s was: energy demand is highly inelastic, so we're headed to $100/barrell oil. Of course, we learned that oil and other forms of energy are much more elastic than we ever imagined. The real challenge of economics and the beauty of human nature is that we do change our behavior - we do adapt to new realities. Dave