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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (30237)	8/11/2004 4:14:02 PM
From: TheSlowLane	Respond to of 39344

Good points by Russ and Claude here. Don Coxe has made similar observations as well. Not only is there the generational thing going on with the current crop of analysts (all they know is tech), the 5 analysts still around that have seen a commodity bull market are employed by virtue of the fact that they have been very cautious. Also, because ALL of the commodity stocks are only 9% of the S&P, there aren't enough ride tickets for the carnival barkers to sell.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (30237)	8/11/2004 4:37:58 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

I see China (and India), differently. Their economies are in a state of collapse, caused by resource shortages. But even if Chinese GDP is flat, or even drops 2% or a whopping 3% (a depression), that's not enough at this point, to cause a metals bear market. Today there are only 147,261 MT of copper left in LME and Comex. Comex is a joke with 65,511 MT, they don't even have collateral on hand to make a market anymore. I lay a bet right now that a rogue trader is in there, trying to force this market down, against all fundamentals. So we will just see where the market is when this drops below 100,000, in a month or so, or 60,000, or 40,000, or zero. We will see then if "economic slowdown" even matters?