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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (18001)	8/11/2004 5:10:08 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95656

Don, congrats to a nice grub. :) So now it's book value ML goes by - not P/S? And the price target is set by a PE of 16? I wonder why they still cover AMAT. Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (18001)	8/11/2004 5:33:35 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95656

Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. (TER, KLIC, NSM) JagNotes <<TER: Downgraded to Neutral - Although the timing and magnitude of KnS' pre-announcement last night played a factor in our downgrade - the underlying basis for our rating change is that concerns over end demand have increased in semis, and in telecom. Our initial thesis that the back end was better insulated to a slowdown in capital spending was predicated upon relatively healthy end demand. Even if semi unit demand did slow, we thought telecom exposure (~15% of sales) would provide TER with an alternative growth vector. Datapoints overnight - lower than expected guidance from CSCO and KnS' dreary outlook - at least calls into question the strength of end demand, and prompted us to revisit our thesis.>> <<KLIC: Reit Neutral - We are lowering our F4Q04 revenue and EPS to $145 mm and $0.05. With the topline coming under pressure - we are revising our F05 EPS estimate from $1.05 to $0.30 (prior street consensus was $1.21). Deteriorating profitability magnifies balance sheet risk (cash could dip below $100 mm if the bonds are called in Aug) - especially if 2005 is a downturn. The stock is trading at 0.6 times C05 revenue, in line with 2002 trough P/sales but showing 45% downside to 1998 trough multiples - although progress on breakeven ($130-135 mm versus $195 mm last cycle) could argue for some premium to past troughs. Price target lowered to $6.50 (from $13) representing 20 times P/E based on our C05 estimate.>> <<NSM: Reit Underperform - Our new CY04 revenue and EPS estimates are $2.20bn and $1.10, down from $2.29bn and $1.20. CY05 estimates are $2.09bn and $0.84, down from $2.25bn and $1.01. We are revising our price target to $15.00 (~2.5X '05 EV/S) from $19.50 and will review our price target post earnings. We continue to believe NSM has past the sweet spot of its restructuring and remain cautious on the company`s longer-term outlook. Thus, we maintain our Underperform rating. However, a cheap `04 valuation combined with reset bar could drive short-lived upside into any 2H strength.>>