To: redfish who wrote (42453 ) 8/12/2004 6:31:02 PM From: redfish Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 81568 Some Florida analysis: More Good News for Kerry in Florida Posted by DavidNYC Ah, silly major news organizations. They all but snickered when they determined that Kerry didn't see a post-convention bounce, or a big enough post-convention bounce, or a post-convention bounce that was the size of Moby Dick after an eating binge. Or whatever it was they were looking for. As is typical of our decrepit media, though, they couldn't be bothered to look hard enough, or even in the right places. I say this because the good swing state news (be sure to see Chris's post below) keeps rolling right on in. Quinnipiac just released a Florida poll today, and it's all smiles (registered voters, late June in parens): Kerry: 49 (46) Bush: 42 (44) Other/Undecided: 9 (10) (MoE: ±3%) This is the second poll in the past week or so to show Kerry stretching his lead in Florida. And thanks to the large sample size here (N=1,094), we know that this lead is outside the MoE. Other highlights: Bush's job approval is way below the Mendoza line at 44-54 (and sinking from June's 46-52). Favorability ratings are also U-G-L-Y for Dubya: 38-43, with 17% saying "mixed." Kerry's in positive territory at 39-31-21, and again, his numbers have improved since June (30-33), again demonstrating that Bush's plan to drive up Kerry's unfaves has moved into Edsel territory. Only 10% of respondents say they are "very satisfied" with "the way things are going in the nation today." And finally, 49% of people say that the war in Iraq was the "wrong thing" while 45% say it was the right thing. Florida's late Senate primary is coming up soon (Aug. 31st). Polling indicates that Betty Castor is likely to win for the Dems. Any thoughts on what her chances might be, and if Kerry-Edwards might have coattails? (As an aside, I absolutely hate late primaries. We have them in September in New York - just six weeks before the general election - and the only thing they do is provide protection for incumbents, who don't have to face bloody primary battles that last all summer.)swingstateproject.com [if I can get them to give me my updated voter registration card before the election, I'm voting for Betty Castor, she's a class act, she is leading by quite a bit]