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Pastimes : Weather and climate -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rainy_Day_Woman who wrote (99)	8/26/2005 1:58:44 AM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 112

Neutral ENSO and weaker warm PDO cses.washington.edu "If ENSO forecasts favoring ENSO-neutral conditions in the next 3-6 months are correct, the ENSO influence on North Pacific SSTs should be expected to contribute to a continuation of recent trends toward near-zero values of the PDO index for the next 3-6 months." So you wouldn't think that the odds should be in any way tilted away from an average winter--and in fact the only adjustment to the forecast is a nod to a persistent multi decadal regional warming (I think it has been warming in the PNW since the '70s). "persistence of recent surface air temperature trends over the past 15 years favor increased odds for above average air temperatures for the next 3-6 months" This past winter was pretty dry and mild here in the Pacific Northwest. It is a pretty good bet that precip will be close to normal this next winter, and again, the odds for temperatures are tilted a tad towards warmth, but not nearly so much as the increased probability of warmth as in a Warm-ENSO year). ................................................ I plan on skiing under the new high speed quad at Mission Ridge (Wenatchee, Washington) this winter.