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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NHP who wrote (26503)	8/13/2004 10:03:51 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

NHP--The performance of Kodak during the depression is probably not analagous to what SanDisk might face in an economic downturn. Kodak had a large film and photofinishing business for both amateurs and professionals. In addition, Kodak dominated the market for cinema film, which actually improved during the 30's, when the average person could not afford entertainment more costly than the movies. SanDisk has not achieved the dominance in any of its markets that would be similar to Kodak's dominance in the 30's. What SanDisk has going for it in the current situation is a very rapidly expanding demand for flash memory, which should persist even if the economy turns more sour than it already is. The projected slowing of growth in semiconductor demand for 2005 and 2006 should not affect SanDisk nearly as much as the manufacturers of microprocessor and DRAM chips. Lumping all the semiconductor companies together forces investors to conclude that the prospective drop in demand will hurt everyone. That's what the short sellers are banking on and it explains why stocks like SanDisk and QUALCOMM are so weak at present. The short sellers don't know more than we do, but their actions, if done in concert, can create a self fulfilling prophecy. Art