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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (17721)8/13/2004 11:24:24 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 110194
 
The way I see it (in time):
1. Deflation starts, FED cuts, bonds rally, foreign CB keep buying, USD slowly slides.
2. Time passes (years?). Trust in FED vanishes.
3. USD paper comes back, USD tanks, bonds tank.

Exactly.
Inflation kicks in aftter tons of credit is destroyed in the US and China becomes self supporting in demand.

When they float the Renmimbi, we will not be happy with it!
They will do so at a moment that screws us badly.

Mish



To: ild who wrote (17721)8/14/2004 11:49:46 AM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Seriously there is a difference between Heinz's and Succo's deflations. Heinz sees low long term rates and Succo sees high long term rates.

I think they see the same thing. It's a matter of time frame. Rates go down until foreigners lose faith in the dollar. I don't think it's going to take years for it to happen. It may not happen for a year, but I doubt it's going to take five.


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