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Politics : Discuss the candidates honestly. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richnorth who wrote (3977)	8/15/2004 2:00:50 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Respond to of 4965

Poll watchers' delight:Dog days: What August means to November Published August 15, 2004 Some polls show that Democratic nominees John Kerry and John Edwards got a little bump after the Democratic National Convention, but the real measure of their contest with President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney is to come. Big leads in August can translate into big victories in November, a look at polls across recent history shows. And the tighter the race in the dog days, the closer the margin come November. 1972 Richard Nixon (R) (Winner) George McGovern (D) AUGUST LEAD: 26% VICTORY MARGIN: 23% 1976 Jimmy Carter (D) (Winner) Gerald Ford (R) AUGUST LEAD: 22% VICTORY MARGIN: 2% 1980 Ronald Reagan (R) (Winner) Jimmy Carter (D) AUGUST LEAD: 16% VICTORY MARGIN: 10% 1984 Ronald Reagan (R) (Winner) Walter Mondale (D) AUGUST LEAD: 12% VICTORY MARGIN: 18% 1988 George Bush (R) (Winner) Michael Dukakis (D) AUGUST DEFICIT: 7% VICTORY MARGIN: 8% 1992 Bill Clinton (D) (Winner) George Bush (R) AUGUST LEAD: 12% VICTORY MARGIN: 6% 1996 Bill Clinton (D) (Winner) Bob Dole (R) AUGUST LEAD: 12% VICTORY MARGIN: 9% 2000 George W. Bush (R) (Winner) Al Gore (D) AUGUST DEFICIT: 1% VICTORY MARGIN: -0.5%* 2004 August poll Bush: 46% Kerry: 45% * Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. Note: Poll results for those with no preference, and poll and election results for third-party candidates not shown. Bush-Kerry data from a Gallup Poll of 897 registered voters nationwide conducted Aug. 9-11. Margin of error 4 percentage points. Sources: The Gallup Organization, Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections, PollingReport.com Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune